2.10pm Ayr Tips & Betting Preview 16/01/2017

Eight go to post for a stamina intensive three mile and one furlong hurdle at Ayr on Monday, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Bryden Boy is on the same mark as when second at Hereford five days ago, but he certainly had a tough race that day and that should hand the advantage to LOCHNELL. She’s also on the same mark as when finishing second over C&D two weeks ago and has the assistance of Richard Johnson today, so should be able to capitalise on this good weight to take victory. Of the rest, Portrait King may round out the places if this turns into a proper stamina test as he drops down in class for today’s assignment.

1 SEVENBALLS OF FIRE – Lightly raced eight year old who had been in good form for the majority of this year, though his latest fourth at Cartmel was thoroughly underwhelming (3m 1f, Soft). Drops 3lb for that which gives him a good chance with the ground in his favour and a confirmed stayer at this trip. Iain Jardine has had three winners in the past two weeks and he looks a good Each Way price if back to his best today.

2 BRYDEN BOY – Consistently good performer of late including a win on his penultimate start at Uttoxeter (2m 7f, Heavy) and performed admirably under a 9lb penalty at Hereford to finish 2nd by only half a length (3m 1f, Heavy). Races off the same mark today, but that run was only five days ago which has to be a concern as he had a hard race in poor conditions. Obviously racing in heavy conditions again will suit and is a dour stayer at this trip, but he may well find this race one to many against some fresher rivals.

3 HARTFORTH – Hadn’t been seen since February when appearing in December to rally very gamely to win at Ayr to cause a 50/1 shock (3m, Heavy). Goes up 5lb for that effort which doesn’t look insurmountable now that he has race fitness and conditions to suit once again. He isn’t one to rely on heavily however to follow up as he has flattered to deceive on multiple occasions to follow up good efforts and others make much more solid propositions today.

4 SEE DOUBLE YOU – Ran a good race when finishing fourth at Hexham when last seen in June (2m 4f, Good to Soft) and going up to three miles for today’s return wont be of any concern. What is of concern however is that he lacks a recent run against much younger and possibly fitter rivals, with him turning fourteen recently. He’s probably best watched on his first run for 211 days as he’s also still 5lb above his last winning mark.

5 PORTRAIT KING – Well known name in the staying division and has performed admirably in many big races over his career including winning the Eider Chase in 2012 and a third in the same race in 2016. He has however been well held over both codes since that effort though his latest sixth in the Becher Chase at Aintree was a solid effort (3m 1f, Good to Soft). Returns to hurdling with conditions to suit and if this turns into a thorough stamina test he will certainly be brought into the equation. It’s hard to see him playing for any more than places, though.

6 MOON INDIGO – Had displayed some useful form throughout 2011 but has been seen sparingly since, with only three runs between January 2012 and December 2016, where he returned a well held 7th of 11 here in mid December (3m, Heavy). Hard to get excited on the back of that run but is entitled to of needed that it and the man of the moment Brian Hughes takes the ride which is quite an eye catching jockey booking. Heavy conditions should suit but he does need to prove he’s a strong stayer at this trip and the percentage call is to avoid him after such a stop-start career.

7 BOURNE – Reluctant to line up and never dangerous when plugging on past beaten horses at Bangor in November (2m 7f, Soft), and connections reach for the visor. On the back of that run the step up in trip should suit but in several attempts beyond three miles he’s failed to threaten which of concern, especially in conditions that will require strong stamina. Donald McCain and Will Kennedy are both in form at present and if the visor does have a positive effect then he’d have to be considered for places, but others have more convincing claims.

8 LOCHNELL – Three times a winner at this venue and was a good second over C&D two weeks ago, and can race off the same mark today. That mark of 102 certainly looks attractive based on her two latest seconds and has the assistance of Richard Johnson which is another big plus. Heavy ground is no problem and this trip will be no issue either at a course she knows very well and performs brilliantly at, so all signs point to a big run and she’s deeply respected.

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