2.00pm Ripon Tips & Betting Preview 14/08/2017

Ten fillies head to post to begin Ripon’s Monday afternoon card. Read on for our expert tip and runner by runner preview.

IN SUMMARY: OUT LAST shaped far better than her final position suggests on her debut at Musselburgh. That was over seven furlongs, a strange choice of opening trip for a filly who is a half-sister to a pair of smart six furlong horses, including Wokingham winner Out Do. This isn’t a strong contest and she looks overpriced given her profile. Take Shelter would be the one to beat on her early form but is starting to look exposed, while it would be no surprise to see Dorcas step up on what she has shown so far.

1 BAILEYS ROCKSTAR – Has the best of the draw right against the stands side rail; however, given her middle distance pedigree, there has to be serious doubt that she can make full use of her position. James Given is just 1/17 with his juveniles so far this season so she looks more of a long term prospect for handicaps.

2 BUNGEE JUMP – Plenty of speed in her pedigree, her dam is a full sister to the dam of Dream Ahead. She showed enough on debut to suggest that she was worth a second look on her next start, missing the kick before staying on steadily. That was over seven furlongs so, despite the sprinters pedigree, her run style suggested further this time would suit.

3 TAKE SHELTER – Runner-up on her first two starts, efforts that would set the form standard if she could reproduce them. She has not made the same impression in three starts since and is starting to look a little difficult to win with. The ability is there to take home a maiden of this quality, but she may just find something improving past her once more.

4 DANGEROUS LADY – Shaped with enough ability on her Thirsk debut to think that she will pick up a race further down the line. She stayed on at one pace in a five furlong contest there, looking as if this extra furlong will help her. This is a quick turnaround just nine days later, so she is best watched until she goes into nurseries.

5 LAHARNA – Makes her debut for a yard with just a 2/82 record in juvenile races in the last five seasons. Her dam is a half-sister to a Group 1 winner in Italy as well as Marco Botti’s smart performer Grey Mirage so there is enough to suggest that she should be respected. Middle distance pedigree indicates that she is more of a prospect for 2018 handicaps than for winning first time up.

6 ME BEFORE YOU – Third on both starts so far, without screaming out as a winner third time up. The first of those was over this course and distance so she will have no problems with the undulations, but she looked a little wanting again in the finish last time out. She will be fine on good to soft ground, however she will have to up her game to break the duck at the third time of asking.

7 CHAMPARISI – A relatively cheap purchase for a yard not known for having juvenile runners. She has the likes of St Leger winner Mutafaweq and Grade 1 Flower Bowl winner Dimitrova on her damline so she should have at least some talent. They were middle distance types, however, and her sire Champs Elysees produces late bloomers so she looks a highly unlikely winner on debut.

8 DORCAS – Showed a solid level of progression from first start to second and may have been better still but for being squeezed out late last time. She is going to need another step forward if she is to get competitive here, but her dam won on her third juvenile start so she has an each way chance.

9 OUT LAST – Backed out of things late on when making her debut over seven furlongs at Musselburgh. She is a half-sister to Wokingham winner Out Do as well as 95 rated six furlong horse Outrage, so it was an odd choice of trip on her debut. This step down in distance should suit her better and, with that experience behind her, she looks to be shaping better now.

10 SITSI – Showed decent early speed on her debut but was unable to maintain the gallop in the last furlong. With that in mind, this step up in trip is a slight concern, especially with the yard struggling to find winners of late. Easily overlooked.

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