12.35pm Hereford Tips & Betting Preview 19/12/2016

The opener on Hereford’s card is a competitive looking affair for conditional jockeys over just shy of 2m3f. See our full race preview and betting tips below.

IN SUMMARY: Only a 0-100 but a fascinating contest nonetheless where PEMBROKE HOUSE looks to have a lot in his favour. He was a half length second off this mark on his seasonal return last campaign and won from off this same 100 rating later in the campaign. Ballyegan and Barton Rose would both rate dangers on a going day but neither are the most reliable. King Of Milan has a few glimmers of form and if responding well to the first time headgear could prove the biggest danger at a big price.

1 Bennachie – From the family of Ned Kelly and Nick Dundee, he has struggled to live up to his lofty breeding. Won a bumper on soft and was 3rd to Blaklion in the same discipline but the majority of his best form has come on a sounder surface. Has shown little in his last three chases and despite this being a drop in class, he’s hard to support with any confidence.

2 Barton Rose – Has slipped a long way down the weights since last victorious in January 2015. Has a pair of runner up efforts to her credit off this mark, most recently at this track in October. She is 0/2 over fences in the past off much higher marks but after being a beaten favourite five times since last she won, at the prices the percentage call is to oppose.

3 Pembroke House – A close second on his seasonal return last season over this trip, he won off the same mark of 100 at Lingfield in December. Runner up off higher marks afterwards, he is back down to 100 here and with ground and trip in his favour, he looks a strong contender.

4 Mr Bachster – Picked up a pair of wins in desperate conditions last season so the ground will be to his liking. He didn’t look the most resolute on a number of occasions and wouldn’t be one to trust implicitly off a mark five pounds higher than his most recent win.

5 Gustav – One good run at Kempton aside, he has shown very little ability so far. Trainer and jockey combined for a 40/1 shock at Fontwell earlier in the month but this would be another big surprise if Gustav were to get his head in front.

6 Ballyegan – Showed a little more life over C&D last time having previously looked as if age was catching him with up. Soft ground and a right handed track are ticks in the right boxes and he is well enough treated to have a say if on another going day.

7 Bandol – A chase winner two starts back despite scruffy jumping, he has failed to complete in starts either side. He jumped right at Southwell last time so switching to a right handed track looks a positive move. The peak of his form has come on a sounder surface however and that may prove his undoing.

8 King Of Milan – Glimmers of form in the pointing field and to a lesser extend so far under rules to suggest a mark of 85 is workable. He ran better than a 46 length 5th would look at face value last time at Fontwell having been supported in the market. First time cheekpieces are an interesting addition and he is worth a market check.

9 Welsh Designe – Shaped well at Ludlow last time before coming to grief three fences from home. He can race off his correct handicap mark here (three pounds wrong at Ludlow) but the ground is a concern. His point to point win came on good to firm, the same ground as at Ludlow last time, soft demands considerably more of him.

10 Red Whisper – Won at this track way back in September 2012 but all his best form since has been saved for Towcester. Rising 13 now, he is likely to find this a little too hot to handle.

11 Sussex Rose – Maiden under rules with a distant second at Thurles his best career placing. Eight pounds out of the weights here and looks to need plenty of others to under perform to get involved.

myracing Forecast Prices: 7/2 Barton Rose, 9/2 Pembroke House, 11/2 Bandol, 6/1 Mr Bachster, 13/2 Ballyegan, 15/2 Welsh Designe, 8/1 Bennachie, 16/1 King Of Milan, 25/1 Gustav, 25/1 Sussex Road, 33/1 Red Whisper

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