1.45pm Carlisle Tips & Betting Preview 18/09/2017

A competitive low grade handicap to kick off the Carlisle card on Monday with the focus on the apprentice jockeys. Our runner by runner preview and expert tip are below.

IN SUMMARY: ANGEL PALANAS has been in solid form at this level in recent weeks, with his career best run coming on the softest ground he has encountered. This is his trip, so at a solid each way price, he should be right in the mix once more. Yes You looks like the biggest danger; she has been running well over six furlongs and although the step down in trip is a slight question mark, the extra stamina may prove helpful to her up the hill. Sir Domino hasn’t shown much for a long time, but he is absolutely thrown in on his best so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got involved.

1 DESPERADOS DESTINY – Two best runs so far have both come on the Tapeta, but his turf form is not yet able to match up. His best run on the grass came in a Class 4 event off of eight pounds higher so he has to be considered given this drop in grade. Soft ground is no concern but, based on what he has shown on turf, he is still a couple of pounds high in the handicap.

2 YES YOU – Steadily progressive this season, including a win over six furlongs here on good to soft ground. She has struck up a good relationship with Jamie Gormley, with softer ground no concern for her. The drop down in trip is a slight question mark but, given the prevailing conditions, it probably won’t be an issue for her. Still progressing so looks sure to be in the mix once more.

3 ANGEL PALANAS – Yet to get his head in front but has been threatening to break his duck of late. His career best run came last autumn on the softest ground he has encountered from a mark six pounds higher than now. He has hit the frame a couple of times this season from this mark on quicker ground so, with the return to a deeper surface, this looks like his best chance to land a contest for the first time.

4 GONINODAETHAT – Brave front runner over both five and six furlongs, he has won three times on soft ground. All wins and his best runs have come at Ayr so, despite being back on his most recent winning mark, he makes far less appeal here than he would at Ayr.

5 WHIPPHOUND – Five furlongs on soft ground are ideal conditions for him, with three of his four best runs coming on tracks with an uphill finish, including once here. He has been competitive at a similar level to this for the last year so although he is fully exposed, he has his usual each way squeak if on a going day.

6 JAZZ LEGEND – Changed yard six times in the last 13 months, winning once when in the care of Olly Murphy. That was from a pound lower so he is at a feasible level if able to reproduce that. He has scored on good to soft but his two runs on softer haven’t shown him in a favourable light which has to be a concern.

7 JACKSONFIRE – A 22 race maiden, he twice filled the runner-up slot in August. Yet to run on heavy ground, however he has placed a couple of times on soft to give some hope that he will handle conditions. He has only beaten a single horse home in two runs over this trip which is a question mark. That said, this is unlikely to be a typical five furlong contest anyway, considering the ground.

8 KNOCKAMANY BENDS – Won over this trip on soft ground at Hamilton in August from three pounds lower. Ten runners from the race since (himself included) have only managed two places between them, so the form is only of a moderate level. He needs more again, but at least he has no issues with conditions which has to go down as a significant plus.

9 SIR DOMINO – Seven pounds below his mark from two races ago when three lengths behind Knockamany Bends. That means that he is twelve pounds better off in total which should, on the bare face of things, allow him to reverse the placings. He is horribly inconsistent so he is no sure thing to do so, however these are his conditions and he is thrown in on his past form so needs to be watched carefully.

10 REFLATION –  All three career wins have come over six furlongs but two of them were on heavy ground so underfoot conditions are perfect for him. He is 13 pounds lower than for the last of them which came in September 2016. He showed a little more last time out to give hope to connections, but he may find a few others with too much toe at this trip.

11 CAPTAIN SCOOBY – Heavy ground conditions are no problem for him with a solid pace and a stiff track helpful for his pounce late style. He has been compromising his chances of late with some very slow breaks, something he will struggle to overcome here from well out of the handicap. Well beaten at Bath yesterday, so has plenty to prove.

12 PASSIONATTA – Visor did the trick when she got off the mark last time at Chepstow. That was the first time she has shown any form so it has to be taken with a pinch of salt for now until she shows that she is capable of repeating, racing in the headgear once more. That was on a little better ground than she will face here on a sharper track, so from five pounds higher she has plenty more on her plate.