1.25pm Lingfield Tips & Betting Preview 15/11/2016

IN SUMMARY: ROSIE ROYCE is one of a handful of lightly raced three year olds in this field, and at an attractive Each Way price is tipped to make a victorious All Weather debut. She’s impressively bred and well handicapped on her turf form. Virile and Swiss Cross should both run well but both look too short in the market to be attractive bets, while Picansort offers potential Each Way value at a big price as an alternatively.

1 Picansort – A veteran of 82 starts, was rated in the mid 80s at his peak but runs here off 65. Below par on his last two starts on the turf but return to All Weather will suit, albeit off this 12lb higher mark than on the garss. Beaten favourite in a Seller over the minimum distance here on his last polytrack run, he is well handicapped on his summer form and could run well at a big price for trainer Peter Crate.

2 Swiss Cross – This will be this 9 year old’s 100th start under Rules, with 9 wins to his name so far including a Dead Heat win off just one pound lower last time out. That was over one furlong further and this drop back in trip out to suit. However, has seen a lot of racing recently and will need everything to fall right again to win off this mark in a more competitive race.

3 Virile – Sent off 11/4 favourite last time out at Wolves off two pounds lower last month, he was denied a clear run twice but still managed to finish 4th. Was in good form coming into that but is now seven pounds higher than his last winning mark and despite his trainer’s good recent form is vulnerable to better handicapped horses. Short enough price overnight makes him poor value.

4 Rosie Royce – One of a handful of lightly raced youngsters, this 8 race maiden is in good hands with Henry Candy and will make her All Weather debut here. Has been competing in better quality contests than this on the grass, finishing close up off similar marks on a range of goings. Her sire’s runners tend to cope fine with All Weather and she’s attractively bred – her dam was a 5f Listed winner. Still owned by her stud, she’s entered the Tattersalls December Mares Sale at the end of the month and winning this would be a big boost to her sales price. Available at an Each Way price, the step back up in trip will help and she’s off a very attractive mark.

5 Rigolleto – A previous Course & Distance winner, is back to his previous winning mark. Has a good record when George Baker is booked and is a six furlong specialist which will stand him in good stead compared to others in this field. However, was well beaten at Kempton last time out and his trainer has just a 10% strike rate here in the last five seasons.

6 Harmony Bay – Another previous Course & Distance winner, that coming back in August 2015 in a Maiden Auction contest. Has found life difficult in handicaps off similar marks though, and while the drop back in distance should help the question marks over his form remain. Should find a few of these too well handicapped.

7 Sakhee’s Jem – Has just one third place to show from five visits to the All Weather so far, and was beaten out of sight (just ahead of Harmony Bay) at Kempton last time out. Needs the drop back in trip and new surroundings at Kempton to kick start her season but unlikely.

8 Sonnet – Lightly raced 3 year old filly, was behind Sakhee’s Jem and Harmony Bay when running disappointingly at big odds last time out. Had struggled at Wolves on her prior start and tries her shortest trip yet. Doesn’t look well handicapped off 64 and tough to back following her last run, despite application of first time visor.

9 Last Star Falling – Trainer Henry Spiller has had three runners in the last 14 days, all beaten big distances at big prices. His 3 year old filly won off six pounds lower too starts ago but found it tougher going off her revised mark last month when only 9th at Wolves. Promising young jockey Josephine Gordon takes the ride but has no allowance having ridden out her claim. With a fast pace to aim at may be able to get competitive off this mark but looks short in the market.

10 Seek The Fair Land – Ten year old with plenty of All Weather experience – 14 wins from 90 starts on synthetic surfaces. Only narrowly beaten by Swiss Cross over 7f here at Lingfield last time out, and handicapper has left his mark as is. Had dropped 10lb in the weights prior to that run but last two wins came in a Claimer and Seller respectively and looks too short in the market.

11 Pharoh Jake – Well handicapped based on his last All Weather run, beaten by a head over the minimum trip at this course off the same mark. His last three runs have been hit and miss, well beaten at Windsor last time out, but he bounced back from a similar run to win here in April. Has just one win in 38 starts at 6f compared to 10 wins in 61 starts at 5f trips and unlikely to get the slow pace he’d need to win.

12 Swanton Blue – Three year old who is well handicapped on his summer form, but has lost his way since and beaten just two rivals hoem in his last three starts. Steps back up in trip here which should help and is now 13lb lower than when running over Course & Distance here in April, when beaten just under 4 lengths into 7th. While he is still a maiden, could run well to finish in the places at a double figure price.

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