UAE 1000 Guineas Tips & Betting Preview 2018

IN SUMMARY: If the form holds up as expected then this is all about the battle between WINTER LIGHTNING and Rayya with the first named narrowly preferred. Both have room to go on from that effort to even better things but Saeed bin Suroor seems to think Winter Lightning will improve for her battling victory here last time out and if that is the case she will take all the beating now as well.


1 LINE HOUSE – A winner at Newcastle in October in a novice event over seven furlongs for Robyn Brisland before moving to Karl Burke in December last year. Two races since have seen a second at Southwell on the equitrack and a thirty-nine length last of fourteen behind Winter Lightning, Rayya, Expressly, Sa’ada, and Two Shots Of Happy and unless connections know something that we don’t, there is no reason why that form should be turned around today.


2 WINTER LIGHTNING – A half-sister to Thunder Snow and apparently very like her sibling with a laid-back personality. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor suggests she is fancied by the stable saying “There are some nice fillies in the race, but we are looking for another good result”, and after she won the trial for this contest by a nose for Rayya last month she looks the one to beat with her chilled-out demeanour implying that she will improve significantly for the race.


3 RAYYA – Just a nose behind Winter Lightning here last month and sure to be that rival’s main challenger again this afternoon. A daughter of Tiz Wonderful she was only having her second start after taking a maiden here by close to ten lengths and with room to do even better over time for the excellent Doug Watson, she ought to go close again here, and is not comfortably dismissed by any means in this field.


4 TWO SHOTS OF HAPPY – Behind the principles in the trial for this race three weeks ago and beaten twenty-nine lengths at the line. A daughter of Zebedee she had won her previous two starts at Bro Park and then Jagersro in Sweden and four from six last year in total but she looks likely to be outclassed again here barring significant improvement. Should go off at a big price of 66/1 or so but that seems to accurately reflect her chances in this line-up.


5 EXPRESSIY – Two wins last season for Newmarket trainer Charlie Appleby with a Novice Stakes on the July course which she took by an easy four lengths and a Chelmsford victory by two and a half lengths on the all-weather in a second Novice Stakes last October. Off for nearly three months before returning here in the trail and beaten ten lengths behind Winter Lightning and Rayya and it would be a surprise if she were to improve enough to reverse that form here though William Buick, rides and she may well threaten the places again here.


6 QUEEN ESTORIL – Makes her dirt debut here but fairly useful at home with one win at Klampenborg and two at Overroll. Norway are becoming more of a force on the World stage year on year, but it seems unlikely that form adds up to that of her rivals here and if she can pick up any of the minor place prize money, connections ought to be more than happy here.


7 SA’ADA – Well-regarded filly who found the seven furlongs far too short when close to seventeen lengths adrfit of Winter Lightning and Rayya here last month and although likely to finish closer now, she may well be better over even further in time, with a suspicion that the UAE Oaks may well be more to her liking.


8 FLORA SANDES – One of the less exposed runners with an educational debut followed by a half-length maiden win stepped up to a mile, both on the Chelmsford all-weather. Needs to do a lot better in this company but Charlie Appleby sees fit to run her here with James Doyle in the saddle, and it will be intriguing to see just how much more improvement the daughter of War Front can find with the dirt surface quite likely to bring out the best of her on breeding at least.


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