Welcome to our new article – “Get Layed” – where we will give a daily horse (or two) which we don’t think will win! Laying involves offering odds that the horse won’t win – you are the bookie! If they lose, you win the stake of the bettor, if they win, you have to pay out the bettors profit.
Note: you can’t lay horses on any of the normal bookies, only on Exchanges. Betfair is the biggest and best betting Exchange with the most liquidity, so we’d recommend using them.
Yesterday’s lay, East India was well beaten finishing last of the five runners beaten over 12 lengths! There was a huge drift from 4.3 to 7.4 before the race so you could have traded out for a profit before they had even left the stalls! Today we bring you another lay we think we can get beat.
Today’s lay comes in the Musselburgh Gold Cup (3:25), a two mile class three contest with a nice field size of 13. The favourite for this race is Handiwork and he’s a horse I want to take on at a fairly short price on the exchanges, generally around 3.5 (5/2).
Handiwork is a progressive five year-old and like most in this field, he has dabbled in both codes having proven to enjoy tackling obstacles. He’s the highest rated horse over obstacles in this field, but it’s his flat form that I want to focus on today.
He’s up 11lbs for winning a class five contest at Catterick back in October off an official handicap mark of 64. He absolutely smashed apart the field that day winning by 8 lengths in a fashion akin to Frankel rather than a 75 rated flat horse. The form of that race is incredibly weak. The second that day was actually dropped 5lbs after that run and finished 7/16, 7/7 (admittedly in a tough class 2 contest) and 11/11 over his next three runs. The third is even less inspiring having run three times over hurdles and then finishing 3rd off a mark of 66 in a class five contest on his latest appearance.
There is no doubt that Handiwork does not belong in such lowly company and he clearly enjoys tackling the longer distances. He raced over 15 furlongs last time and now goes a further furlong today. However, the opponents Handiwork must take on today are far better animals on the flat and the race offers a lot more depth. The handicap marks range from 84 to 70 on official ratings which poses Handiwork the toughest question he has yet to face on the flat. It’s unlikely that Handiwork will be outpaced in this contest, but I think at a short price of 5/2 there are questions that must be asked of his quality. Being a handicap he gets a nice bit of weight in the field with 9 of the other 12 runners all handing him weight which will certainly aide his cause.
Joe Fanning was on board last time Handiwork won and he gets back on today, but there are some very solid trainers and jockeys turning up for this contest so I would suggest that there is the potential for a surprise result. Be Perfect is one such sort for Ruth Carr and James Sullivan. This classy animal has race fitness on his side having had a blowout at Lingfield in a class three race and having tackled harder races than this, he may appreciate a slightly easier test. Butterfield and Ellison is another combination I rate highly and they team up with Streets of Newyork. He has drifted this morning which would concern me but he has solid form claims and I would not put him out of the frame. Lady Kashaan has seen a flurry of money this morning and Shane Gray is a very interesting booking having plied his trade for Godolphin over the winter. His 3lb claim could turn out to be really useful aboard the highest rated horse in the race.
I believe Handiwork is a short enough price in this higher grade. An 11lb rise is a lot to tackle and whilst a few factors speak in his favour, I fully expect him to be given a much more serious test in this new class that he has never faced. I think the chances of a few of these are underrated and would hope one or two can get the better of Handiwork and at a fairly short price of 3.5, can land us a fourth straight lay in a row.