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Thursday’s Cheltenham Festival Trends 2019

Thursday’s Cheltenham Festival Trends 2019
@ Racing Post/Martin Lynch
Sean Trivass
Sean Trivass
Wednesday 13th March 2019

Born in to the sport (father owned Northmore Stud and bred St Leger runner up Kite Wood among others), freelance sports writer for over 30 years now enjoying the twilight of his career. Friend to many in the sport of racing, enemy of none (that I know of), massive champion of International racing and has an opinion on everything, though often wrong (allegedly). Nominated for various Sports Journalist Association Awards but a regular "also ran", life goes on regardless with TV and radio work numbing the pain of rejection.....

Today we look at the Thursday trends for the Cheltenham Festival to see if past performances can be repeated and point us all in the direction of the winners of each or any race.

We’ve picked out 3 key trends from each race. Follow the full trends link for each race to see the full set of trends and how they apply to the field.

JLT Novices’ Chase

8 of the 8 winners had raced at the Cheltenham Festival before
7 of the 8 winners were Irish trained
7 of the 8 winners came from the first four in the betting

Conclusion: The first two in the betting are both UK based so to match the trends above we need to moved down to REAL STEEL who has won his last two starts at Fairyhouse and Thurles and represents the in-form Willie Mullins stable. Nothing else can boast a match on all three trends leaving the suggestion as the each way option here.

See the full JLT Novices’ Chase trends here.

Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle

9 of the last 11 were aged eight or younger
9 of the last 11 finished in the first four home last time out
9 of the last 12 were sat between 132 and 142 on the official ratings

Conclusion: If you look at the full trends list (linked below) you will find a total of six patterns to work with – and outsider NOT MANY LEFT hits the bullseye on them all. A winner last time out for Jessica Harrington he looks solid each way value here, though others in with a statistical edge include First Assignment and Boyhood who could also go well.

The full list of Pertemps Handicap hurdle trends are available here.

Ryanair Chase

9 of the last 11 winners had scored at Cheltenham before
6 of the last 7 winners were aged seven or eight weights
5 of the last 6 winners were second season chasers

Conclusion: We have a full house once again here, this time with another Irish raider in the shape of FOOTPAD who looks all set to give Willie Mullins yet another winner at the Festival. A faller at Naas and then second to Simply Ned at Leopardstown he looks as if he has been saved for this with The Storyteller a big priced option to follow him home.

All of our Ryanair Chase trends can be accessed here.

Stayers’ Hurdle

16 of the last 18 winners came from the first four in the betting
22 of the last 24 were trained outside of Ireland
14 of the last 17 finished first or second in all their starts of the current season

Conclusion: If favourite PAISLEY PARK turns up in the same form as he has the rest of the season then Aidan Coleman can steer him to success for trainer Emma Lavelle and owner Andrew Gemmell. He ticks every box we can find in this year’s renewal and is tough to oppose leaving Supasundae and perhaps Top Notch to fight it out for the places.

All our Stayers’ Hurdle trends can be easily found here.

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Chase

26 of the last 31 winners were rated 141 or less
17 of the last 19 winners came were fifth favourite or worse in the betting
18 of the last 19 winners had run in sixteen chases or less

Conclusion: Outsiders look to hold sway here historically and the one that stands out here is the David Pipe trained EAMON AN CNOIC who fits all three trends amd plenty more besides. A winner last time out at Chepstow on his second start after wind surgery he looks potentially well handicapped off 137 (four pounds lower than the 141 mentioned in the trends) and has won on heavy going. Siruh Du Lac comes second after trend analysis and is another who should go well.

Full Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Chase trends can be found here.

Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

3 of the 3 winners of this race were sent off favourite
3 of the 3 winners won last time out
3 of the 3 winners were aged five

Conclusion: All roads seem to lead to EPATANTE here as Nicky Henderson’s mare looks to keep her unbeaten record over hurdles after successes at Kempton and Exeter. She should prove tough to beat but do keep an eye on My Sister Sarah for Willie Mullins who looks massively overpriced for a stable who do remarkably well here.

All our Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle trends are here for your perusal.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase

7 of the last 7 winners had a mark of 137 or more according to the official ratings
9 of the last 10 failed to win their previous race
8 of the last 10 winners came from the first six in the betting

Conclusion: ANY SECOND NOW looks the one to be on here with Mr Derek O’Connor on board in the J P McManus first colours. He fits all the trends mentioned and thither beside and could prove too good for these, though both Its All Guesswork and No Comment are worthy of plenty of respect.

All the facts you need are here and our Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends are ready and waiting if you are looking for further detail.

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