Race Time: 2.50pm Meeting: Kempton
Distance: 1m 3f
Full Race Name: 888Sport.com Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) (Class 2)
Our 2.50pm Kempton tip live on Channel 4 racing is:
Trying to work out early season handicaps can be akin to pulling teeth as we attempt to balance the fitness advantages of the all-weather performers against the generally better form of last season but we can only give these things a go and I will start with the Charlie Appleby yard who are in quite ridiculous early season form.
Since they decided to step New Year’s Night (7/2) up in trip they haven’t looked back as the son of Ravens Pass has doubled up at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, staying on to win over the mile and a half trip. To be fair, he hasn’t exactly been impressive but beauty is as beauty does and with a current strike rate of 11 winners from just the 18 runners in the past fortnight (or a ridiculous 61%), who is to say the improving four year old will not add to those statistics.
As big fans of George Margarson we would like to see Rebellious Guest (7/1) run well and as we know he is fit after finishing second to Winter Derby winner Tryster last time out here when running on strongly over a furlong shorter, and with Tom Queally currently booked it appears they may mean business. He did won here off a rating a pound higher last season so we are not asking for anything he hasn’t already achieved, which has to be a positive.
Fine-tuning the other runners isn’t as easy as it sounds but George Baker’s Fiftyshadesfreed (16/1) had a good season last year with three wins at Wolverhampton against his name and will look to do the same in 2015. Why they think a son of Verglas will be best at a mile and three is beyond me, and with all his wins to date over less (seven furlongs, eight and a half furlongs, and nine and a half – but not eleven), he will not be carrying any of our money just yet.
Latin Charm (7/1) won his last two races of 2014 with victories at Windsor and then here over course and distance, and the son of Cape Cross is certainly a fighter, though whether a four pound rise by the handicapper will help is unlikely and Marco Botti will need to find some extra improvement somehow, leading me to Saoi (7/1) as my last suggestion for now.
Trained in West Sussex by William Knight, he is sort of the victim of his own success as his consistency has not escaped the attentions of the handicapper, yet he is just the sort to make it in to the first three for each way thieves, if he gets all the luck in running and one or two of the likelier winners don’t bring their best to the table. Wins at Gowran Park, Lingfield, Wolverhampton, and Ffos Las have surrounded plenty of places and if we assume he needed the run when fourth at Lingfield last time out, we do at least know he will be fit this afternoon unlike the majority of the likely market leaders.