Road to Cheltenham: It's too early to write off this 40/1 Ryanair Chase contender
1 day ago
MUSSELBURGH
28 November 2024
Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Novices' Handicap Chase (Class 5) Racecard
- Channel:
- Distance: 2m 4f 68y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Runners
- 8
- Type
- Chase Turf
- Surface
- Turf
- Weather
- Partly cloudy
Selection
No myracing analysis available for this race
-
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Racecard
No.(Draw)
Runner
Best Odds
Soundly beaten on chase/h'cap debut but this 3m point winner could improve now up in trip
5-549
Age: 5
Weight: 12-0
OR: 96
Days: 33
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 24 | Kel Kelso | 17f GS | 5NvHcCh | 11-13 h | 9/11 | Walk On Quest (19½L) | 17/2 | 99 | 90 |
| 3 Oct 24 | War Warwick | 16f Gd | 4NvH | 11-3 h1 | 4/11 | Strong Foundations (8½L) | 10/1 | - | 93 |
| 14 May 24 | Sth Southwell | 16f Gd | 4NvMdH | 11-4 | 5/13 | Haarar (11½L) | 9/4J | - | 88 |
| 15 Dec 23 | Ban Bangor-on-Dee | 16.5f Hy | 4NvH | 11-0 | 5/10 | Classic Lord (19L) | 9/4F | - | 88 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
0-7 over fences but fair sixth at Kelso latest and could build on that now back up in trip
3-P646
Age: 8
Weight: 11-12
OR: 94
Days: 33
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 24 | Kel Kelso | 17f GS | 5NvHcCh | 11-9 p | 6/11 | Walk On Quest (6¼L) | 8/1 | 95 | 97 |
| 12 Oct 24 | Hex Hexham | 15.5f Sft | 5HcCh | 11-11 p | 4/10 | Caldwell (5¼L) | 9/1 | 96 | 101 |
| 26 May 24 | Kel Kelso | 21.5f GS | 4HcCh | 10-7 p | 6/7 | Chapel Green (32L) | 12/1 | 99 | 82 |
| 10 May 24 | Mar Market Rasen | 21.5f Gd | 5HcCh | 11-5 p | PU/9 | The Electrician () | 13/2 | 100 | - |
| 28 Jan 24 | Don Doncaster | 19f Gd | 4NvHcCh | 10-10 p | 3/8 | Snowy Evening (11L) | 16/1 | 100 | 99 |
| 19 Dec 23 | Cat Catterick | 19f GS | 5NvHcCh | 12-0 p | 2/11 | Kings Justice (hd) | 40/1 | 99 | 101 |
C
Course Winner - Won before at this course
D
2 x Distance Winner - Won 2 times before at this distance
Made it 0-8 over fences when tailed off at Ayr but case can be made on form from spring
42-298
Age: 7
Weight: 11-10
OR: 92
Days: 26
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 24 | Ayr Ayr | 21.5f Gd | 5HcCh | 11-5 p | 8/12 | Pats Dream (34L) | 16/1 | 93 | 71 |
| 9 Jun 24 | Per Perth | 24f GF | 5HcH | 11-8 v | 9/11 | Fever Dream (34L) | 9/2 | 93 | 66 |
| 15 May 24 | Per Perth | 24f GS | 5HcCh | 11-4 v | 2/8 | Cowboy Cooper (5L) | 7/2J | 90 | 94 |
| 25 Apr 24 | Per Perth | 20f Sft | 4HcH | 10-2 v1 | 2/11 | What A Johnny (6L) | 12/1 | 89 | 93 |
| 26 Mar 24 | Ncs Newcastle | 23.5f Hy | 5NvHcCh | 11-4 p | 4/5 | Has Troke (19½L) | 9/4 | 90 | 76 |
| 8 Mar 24 | Ayr Ayr | 24f GS | 5HcCh | 11-4 p | 2/7 | Whosmydaddy (3¼L) | 6/1 | 87 | 94 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
Cold Recent Form Jockey - 1 wins from 28 in the last 14 days (4%)
Not bred for fences but from in-form yard & receives valuable 4yo allowance on chase debut
313P-3
Age: 4
Weight: 11-8
OR: 99
Days: 14
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 24 | Sed Sedgefield | 17f Gd | 5HcH | 12-0 p | 3/8 | Suitably Surprised (11L) | 20/1 | 100 | 92 |
| 23 Apr 24 | Sth Southwell | 24.5f Gd | 5HcH | 10-12 p | PU/13 | Urban Soldier () | 22/1 | 102 | - |
| 10 Mar 24 | War Warwick | 16f Sft | 5HcH | 11-3 | 3/6 | Billytherealbigred (56L) | 6/1 | 103 | 61 |
| 5 Feb 24 | Sth Southwell (AW) | 16.5f St | 6Hc | 9-9 | 8/8 | Eagle's Realm (25L) | 12/1 | 64 | 44 |
| 12 Jan 24 | Sed Sedgefield | 20f Sft | 5HcH | 10-10 | 1/12 | Swift Reply (1L) | 100/30 | 97 | 86 |
| 26 Dec 23 | Sed Sedgefield | 20f GS | 5HcH | 11-0 | 3/8 | Halpha Soleil (6L) | 3/1 | 98 | 86 |
0-10 over hurdles but some good runs this season and he's one to consider on chase debut
70-2P3
Age: 6
Weight: 11-8
OR: 90
Days: 31
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 24 | Ayr Ayr | 19.5f GS | 5HcH | 11-4 p1 | 3/14 | Adveram (4¼L) | 6/1 | 90 | 88 |
| 25 Sep 24 | Per Perth | 20f Gd | 5HcH | 11-9 | PU/10 | Limerick Leader () | 12/1 | 90 | - |
| 9 Jun 24 | Per Perth | 16f GF | 5NvHcH | 11-4 | 2/10 | Marty McFly (1L) | 25/1 | 87 | 92 |
| 26 Apr 24 | Per Perth | 20f Sft | 5NvHcH | 11-0 | 12/12 | Plaisir Des Flos (57L) | 33/1 | 91 | 40 |
| 8 Mar 24 | Ayr Ayr | 20.5f GS | 5HcH | 11-8 | 7/12 | Follow Charlie (17L) | 10/1 | 94 | 88 |
| 26 Dec 23 | Wet Wetherby | 19.5f Sft | 4NvHcH | 11-1 | 6/12 | Elogio (22L) | 10/1 | 97 | 82 |
Hot Recent Form Trainer - 6 wins from 22 in the last 14 days (27%)
Well treated on best hurdle form and the drop back in trip could help on third chase start
8-3665
Age: 6
Weight: 11-4
OR: 86
Days: 33
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 24 | Kel Kelso | 23.5f GS | 4NvHcCh | 10-6 t | 5/8 | Similar Story (25L) | 22/1 | 89 | 81 |
| 25 Sep 24 | Per Perth | 20f Gd | 5HcCh | 11-5 t | 6/9 | Indian Louis (60L) | 20/1 | 94 | 49 |
| 11 Jun 24 | Sth Southwell | 20.5f Gd | 5HcHM | 11-9 t | 6/7 | Emily Wade (9¼L) | 6/1 | 95 | 88 |
| 23 May 24 | Mar Market Rasen | 20.5f Gd | 5NvHcHM | 11-12 t | 3/10 | Seasmoke (2L) | 12/1 | 94 | 94 |
| 18 Feb 24 | Mus Musselburgh | 20f Sft | 5NvHcH | 11-7 t | 8/11 | Everyonesacritic (24L) | 25/1 | 97 | 75 |
| 14 Jan 24 | Kel Kelso | 16f Sft | 5HcH | 11-4 t1 | 8/10 | Silver Vision (35L) | 4/1 | 97 | 76 |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
Off the mark at the 20th attempt, at Carlisle recently; effective over C&D; key player
P-2481
Age: 7
Weight: 11-1
OR: 83
Days: 17
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 24 | Crl Carlisle | 20f Gd | 5HcChM | 10-2 p | 1/8 | Similar Story (¾L) | 11/1 | 81 | 88 |
| 26 Oct 24 | Kel Kelso | 17f GS | 5NvHcCh | 10-12 p | 8/11 | Walk On Quest (17½L) | 40/1 | 84 | 76 |
| 15 Jun 24 | Hex Hexham | 15.5f Gd | 5HcCh | 10-9 p | 4/10 | Going Mobile (11L) | 5/1 | 84 | 88 |
| 21 May 24 | Hex Hexham | 15.5f Gd | 4HcCh | 9-13 p | 2/9 | Breizh River (1½L) | 40/1 | 83 | 88 |
| 18 Feb 24 | Mus Musselburgh | 20.5f Sft | 5HcCh | 10-9 p | PU/9 | Coolkill () | 6/1 | 76 | - |
| 1 Jan 24 | Mus Musselburgh | 20.5f Sft | 5NvHcCh | 9-13 p | 2/8 | Indian Louis (1L) | 16/1 | 74 | 80 |
Won on the Flat here three weeks ago but 0-9 over fences and this trip may stretch him
55-937
Age: 10
Weight: 10-12
OR: 80
Days: 33
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 24 | Mus Musselburgh | 8f GS | 5Hc | 8-10 p | 1/8 | Code Purple (shd) | 20/1 | 65 | 74 |
| 26 Oct 24 | Kel Kelso | 17f GS | 5NvHcCh | 10-10 p | 7/11 | Walk On Quest (6½L) | 25/1 | 82 | 84 |
| 10 Oct 24 | Ayr Ayr | 8f Gd | 6Hc | 10-2 b | 11/11 | Shine On Brendan (8¼L) | 25/1 | 67 | 56 |
| 25 Sep 24 | Per Perth | 20f Gd | 5HcCh | 10-12 | 3/9 | Indian Louis (18L) | 16/1 | 84 | 77 |
| 15 Sep 24 | Mus Musselburgh | 8f Gd | 5Hc | 9-2 b | 5/7 | Dain Ma Nut In (8¼L) | 22/1 | 68 | 63 |
| 28 Aug 24 | Mus Musselburgh | 7f Gd | 6Hc | 9-10 b | 2/10 | Showtime Mahomes (nse) | 66/1 | 66 | 73 |
4
Rufio ht
J: Miss Lucy Brown 7
T: Gary Rutherford
3227/P
Age: 10
Weight: 11-9
OR: 91
Days: 185
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May 24 | Crt Cartmel | 21f Gd | 5MdHntCh | 11-7 ht | PU/9 | Willewonga () | 33/1 | 98 | - |
| 11 Jan 21 | Her Hereford | 19.5f Sft | 4HcH | 11-5 | 7/15 | Apple Rock (31L) | 11/2 | 106 | 77 |
| 29 Nov 20 | Ffo Ffos Las | 20f Sft | 5HcH | 12-0 h | 2/11 | Imperial Acolyte (8½L) | 100/30J | 106 | 110 |
| 10 Nov 20 | Lin Lingfield | 16f Sft | 4NvHcH | 11-8 h | 2/8 | Mount Windsor (6L) | 4/1 | 106 | 110 |
| 16 Oct 20 | Utt Uttoxeter | 16f GS | 4NvH | 10-12 h1 | 3/12 | Wilde About Oscar (11L) | 16/1 | - | 104 |
| 5 Jan 20 | Plu Plumpton | 20.5f Sft | 3NvH | 11-2 t | 9/10 | Cat Tiger (89L) | 14/1 | - | 28 |
8
D
The Jad Factor
J: Ryan Mania
T: Sandy Thomson
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
0F3P2/
Age: 8
Weight: 11-4
OR: 86
Days: 591
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 23 | Kel Kelso | 21.5f Gd | 5HcCh | 11-0 p1 | 2/14 | Azof Des Mottes (½L) | 6/1 | 91 | 99 |
| 16 Mar 23 | Hex Hexham | 24f Hy | 5HcCh | 12-0 | PU/13 | Kildrum () | 16/1 | 96 | - |
| 27 Feb 23 | Ayr Ayr | 20.5f GS | 4HcCh | 11-2 t | 3/8 | Ardera Cross (37L) | 7/1 | 98 | 78 |
| 2 Jan 23 | Ayr Ayr | 20.5f Hy | 5HcH | 11-13 t | F/17 | So Many Roads () | 14/1 | 98 | 99 |
| 9 Nov 22 | Ayr Ayr | 19.5f Sft | 5HcH | 11-11 t1 | 10/10 | Hard Iron (60L) | 5/1 | 99 | 39 |
| 22 Apr 22 | Per Perth | 20f GS | 5NvHcH | 11-7 | 5/10 | Petite Rhapsody (14L) | 4/1J | 100 | 91 |
Verdict
Recent Carlisle winner Divas Doyen possesses good C&D form but THE JAD FACTOR is on an attractive mark and can defy his absence.
Betting Forecast:
4/1 Divas Doyen,
9/2 The Jad Factor,
6/1 One Step Up,
13/2 I'm Too Tired,
7/1 Just Gino,
Okavango Delta,
8/1 Jackhammer,
9/1 Blow The Budget,
11/1 Euchan Falls,
33/1 Rufio
Relevant Tips
No tips currently available.
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