Road to Cheltenham: It's too early to write off this 40/1 Ryanair Chase contender
1 day ago
TAUNTON
28 November 2024
Taunton Racecourse Business Club "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 4) Racecard
- Channel:
- Distance: 2m 104y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Runners
- 13
- Type
- Hurdle
- Surface
- Turf
- Weather
- Showers
Selection
No myracing analysis available for this race
-
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Racecard
No.(Draw)
Runner
Best Odds
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
Hot Recent Form Trainer - 4 wins from 16 in the last 14 days (25%)
This is much stronger than the Southwell race he won and has a penalty to carry
0-11
Age: 4
Weight: 11-7
OR: -
Days: 13
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov 24 | Sth Southwell | 16f Gd | 4MdH | 11-4 t | 1/4 | Bennettshill (16L) | 2/13F | - | 100 |
| 12 May 24 | Plu Plumpton | 18f Gd | 5NHF | 10-10 t1 | 1/8 | The Sainted Canary (3L) | 9/4F | - | 96 |
| 23 Mar 24 | Nby Newbury | 16.5f GS | 2NHF | 10-10 | 10/20 | Regent's Stroll (10L) | 14/1 | - | 93 |
Beaten 18l+ in all his races, the latest on hurdling debut at Hereford
8-63
Age: 5
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 16
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 24 | Her Hereford | 16f Gd | 4NvH | 10-11 | 3/6 | D'Jo Dela Barriere (18L) | 16/5 | - | 86 |
| 16 Sep 24 | Wor Worcester | 16f Gd | 5NHF | 11-2 | 6/8 | Romeo Foxtrot (18L) | 15/2 | - | 76 |
| 23 Nov 23 | Mar Market Rasen | 16.5f GS | 5NHF | 11-2 | 8/10 | Stay If U Want To (22L) | 5/1 | - | 73 |
Cold Recent Form Jockey - 0 wins from 11 in the last 14 days (0%)
Cold Recent Form Trainer - 0 wins from 11 in the last 14 days (0%)
Refused three out at Chepstow when tailed off at the time (125-1); now goes in cheekpieces
94-R
Age: 5
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 22
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 24 | Chp Chepstow | 16f Gd | 4MdH | 11-4 | REF/9 | Royal Infantry () | 125/1 | - | - |
| 1 Apr 24 | Chp Chepstow | 16f Sft | 5NHF | 11-3 | 4/4 | The Bluesman (28L) | 40/1 | - | 80 |
| 30 Jan 24 | Chp Chepstow | 16f Hy | 4NHF | 11-2 | 9/10 | Ski Lodge (67L) | 25/1 | - | 45 |
Hot Recent Form Trainer - 4 wins from 16 in the last 14 days (25%)
Tailed off in two Wincanton bumpers (heavy/good) and one to watch for the time being
98-
Age: 4
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 221
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 24 | Wcn Wincanton | 15f Gd | 5NHF | 10-5 | 8/10 | Celtic Dino (42L) | 12/1 | - | 56 |
| 12 Dec 23 | Wcn Wincanton | 15f Hy | 53yNHF | 11-2 | 9/9 | Crest Of Fortune (131L) | 4/1 | - | - |
Has hinted at ability but nothing like enough to recommend in a novice of this nature
U77
Age: 5
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 18
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 24 | Ffo Ffos Las | 16f GS | 4NvH | 11-0 | 7/12 | Tutti Quanti (52L) | 125/1 | - | 73 |
| 18 Oct 24 | Utt Uttoxeter | 16f GS | 4NvH | 11-0 | 7/10 | Wade Out (19L) | 150/1 | - | 91 |
| 7 Oct 24 | Str Stratford | 16.5f Sft | 4NvH | 11-0 | UR/12 | Vocito () | 80/1 | - | - |
D
Distance Winner - Won before at this distance
BF
Beaten Favourite - Losing favourite last time out
Hot Recent Form Trainer - 9 wins from 31 in the last 14 days (29%)
Probably needed the run at Exeter and his bumper form makes for good reading
12-6
Age: 5
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 37
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 24 | Exe Exeter | 18.5f GS | 4MdH | 11-4 t1 | 6/11 | Ambion View (25L) | 5/2J | - | 92 |
| 21 Apr 24 | Wcn Wincanton | 15f Gd | 5NHF | 11-11 | 2/10 | Celtic Dino (½L) | 4/1 | - | 109 |
| 29 Nov 23 | Her Hereford | 16f Gd | 5NHF | 11-2 | 1/8 | The Grey Man (2¾L) | 4/5F | - | 91 |
CD
C&D Winner - Won before on this course at this distance
D
2 x Distance Winner - Won 2 times before at this distance
Both wins have come in small fields for weak races; opposable in this company
U19F-1
Age: 5
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 14
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 24 | Tau Taunton | 16.5f GF | 4NvH | 10-2 | 1/4 | Loki's Mischief (hd) | 18/1 | - | 85 |
| 16 Nov 23 | Tau Taunton | 16.5f GS | 4NvH | 10-2 | F/11 | Matterhorn () | 125/1 | - | - |
| 24 Oct 23 | Her Hereford | 16f Gd | 5NHF | 10-13 | 9/13 | Future Fortune (27L) | 40/1 | - | 79 |
| 11 Sep 23 | Nab Newton Abbot | 17f GS | 5NHF | 10-7 | 1/3 | Bradford Lady (3L) | 100/30 | - | 78 |
| 31 Aug 23 | Str Stratford | 16.5f GS | 5NHF | 10-6 | UR/10 | Betty's Tiara () | 28/1 | - | - |
Cold Recent Form Jockey - 0 wins from 11 in the last 14 days (0%)
Well held in a Kempton bumper and again on his switch to hurdling at Leicester
5-5
Age: 5
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 10
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov 24 | Lei Leicester | 20.5f GS | 3MdH | 11-4 | 5/12 | Woodland Park (23L) | 16/1 | - | 95 |
| 9 Feb 24 | Kem Kempton | 16f Sft | 4MdNHF | 11-7 | 5/8 | Electric Mason (15½L) | 7/2 | - | 95 |
Won his fourth start in Irish points but probably up against it in a race of this nature
Form:
Age: 4
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: -
Hot Recent Form Trainer - 4 wins from 13 in the last 14 days (31%)
Shaped with plenty of promise under rules in races won by smart types
52-
Age: 5
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 332
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 24 | Exe Exeter | 16.5f Hy | 5MdNHF | 11-8 | 2/8 | Joyau Allen (3¼L) | 4/1 | - | 101 |
| 11 Nov 23 | Wcn Wincanton | 15f GS | 5NHF | 11-2 | 5/17 | Horaces Pearl (9¼L) | 11/1 | - | 98 |
w2
Wind Op - Second run after wind operation
Hot Recent Form Jockey - 8 wins from 31 in the last 14 days (26%)
Hot Recent Form Trainer - 9 wins from 28 in the last 14 days (32%)
Now 0-5 over hurdles and was beaten when falling in a Chepstow handicap; now hooded
4368-F
Age: 5
Weight: 11-0
OR: 101
Days: 30
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 24 | Chp Chepstow | 19.5f Sft | 5HcH | 11-13 t | F/15 | Holly Hartingo () | 7/1 | 104 | - |
| 19 Apr 24 | Fon Fontwell | 19f Gd | 4HcH | 11-5 t1 | 8/11 | Hecouldbetheone (60L) | 17/2 | 106 | 56 |
| 11 Mar 24 | Tau Taunton | 16.5f Sft | 4MdH | 11-6 | 6/13 | Just One Surf (16½L) | 5/2 | 107 | 98 |
| 12 Jan 24 | Wcn Wincanton | 15f GS | 4MdH | 11-8 | 3/17 | Call The Dance (5¼L) | 13/8 | - | 101 |
| 19 Dec 23 | Wcn Wincanton | 15f Sft | 4MdH | 11-4 | 4/18 | Dartmoor Pirate (12½L) | 100/30 | - | 93 |
His near-miss in a Fontwell bumper (soft) is a complete standout in his form; opposable
P25-6
Age: 4
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 19
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 24 | Wcn Wincanton | 15f Gd | 3NvH | 11-0 | 6/6 | Sorceleur (96L) | 10/1 | - | 4 |
| 11 Mar 24 | Str Stratford | 16.5f Hy | 5MdNHF | 10-10 | 5/7 | Hollygrove Cha Cha (30L) | 4/1 | - | 71 |
| 28 Jan 24 | Fon Fontwell | 17.5f Sft | 5NHF | 10-2 | 2/12 | Tom Doniphon (shd) | 40/1 | - | 84 |
| 1 Jan 24 | Chl Cheltenham | 14f Hy | 4yNHFL | 11-0 | PU/11 | Kel Du Large () | 33/1 | - | - |
BF
Beaten Favourite - Losing favourite last time out
Point winner; got outpaced in a Sandown bumper but did go off favourite; respected
5
Age: 4
Weight: 11-0
OR: -
Days: 18
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 24 | San Sandown | 16f GS | 4NHF | 11-2 | 5/10 | Hurricane Pat (17½L) | 11/4F | - | 96 |
13
D
Tripoli Flyer
J: Jonathan Burke
T: Fergal O'Brien
D
2 x Distance Winner - Won 2 times before at this distance
512-21
Age: 5
Weight: 11-7
OR: -
Days: 1
| Date | Course | Race | Type | Weight | Pos | 1st/2nd | SP | OR | RPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov 24 | Mar Market Rasen | 16.5f Sft | 4NvH | 11-0 | 1/6 | Bennettshill (29L) | 1/14F | - | - |
| 6 Nov 24 | Chp Chepstow | 16f GS | 4MdH | 11-4 | 2/10 | Jurancon (1¼L) | 6/4 | - | 120 |
| 13 Apr 24 | Ain Aintree | 17f GS | NHFG2 | 11-4 | 2/18 | Horaces Pearl (1L) | 13/2 | - | 123 |
| 21 Jan 24 | Lin Lingfield (AW) | 16f St/Slw | 2NHF | 11-4 | 1/13 | Kingston Pride (1½L) | 15/2 | - | 121 |
| 31 Oct 23 | Chp Chepstow | 16f GS | 5NHF | 10-13 | 5/16 | Captain Bellamy (11½L) | 8/1 | - | 101 |
Verdict
Tripoli Flyer would be hard to beat if turned out quickly but perhaps YOUDECIDE can step up on his Sandown run.
Youdecide
Betting Forecast:
10/11 Tripoli Flyer,
9/2 Jackpot Des Bordes,
13/2 Saint Anapolino,
8/1 Youdecide,
10/1 Dance And Glance,
14/1 Siam Park,
16/1 Jukebox Annie,
33/1 Les's Jersey Royal,
Manhattan Valley,
Staff Sergeant Len,
50/1 Brave Move,
100/1 D'Gesteevo,
Dark Material,
Dublin To Milan
Relevant Tips
No tips currently available.
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