Prix Rothschild Tips & Betting Preview

An amazingly high-class race as always and one that has been taken by trainer Freddie Head four times in the last nine runnings (all with the legendary Goldikova), and twice by John Gosden with Elusive Kate, and with both trainers represented once again we should be in for a cracker of a renewal. Read on for our horse by horse race preview for the Prix Rothschild this afternoon.

IN SUMMARY: QEMAH looks the likeliest winner here but won’t find it quite as easy as last year in this classy field. She will need to improve again for her last win but her trainer seems to think that is more than likely after just the two races, and she can come home in front to land our bets. Usherette is entitled to get into the mix with a clear run, while Roly Poly would be a very serious danger in receipt of weight from her elders, if she can reproduce her best form on the softer going expected here.

1 QEMAH – Won this race last season for trainer Jean-Claude Rouget and arrives here in good heart after a win in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes over the mile at Royal Ascot last month. She is one of the classiest fillies seen in many a year over this trip and it will take something special to lower her colours again here if she remains in the same for as last season. Cristian Demuro rides her for the first time which is interesting but she seems fairly straightforward, and with ground and trip ideal she looks the one to beat at first glance and deserves her place at the head of the overnight market.

2 PERSUASIVE – John Gosden’s filly did little wrong last season, winning her first five races and finishing second to Alice Springs in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown on her final outing. That form gives her a decent chance with Qemah on a line though the winner, though this will be her first run in ten months and she will need to be fully tuned up to compete in this class. The stable are in acceptable form with a 17% strike rate in the last two weeks, and jockey Frankie Dettori has had three winners from just the ten rides in the same period, and she is certainly a high-class alternative to the favourite today.

3 USHERETTE – You can never dismiss any horse trained by Andre Fabre, but Godolphin’s five-year-old has already had three chances at success this season, and finished third on each occasion. Last time out she was only a length behind Qemah at Ascot after failing to get a clear run when needed and she meets the winner on the same terms here which entitles her to go close today. A little more rain to soften the ground may well be in her favour and with the stable responsible for six winners from their last twenty-one runners for a 29% success rate and over 16 points of profit and if the race unfolds to suit she won’t be far away again today.

4 FURIA CRUZADA – The rank outsider in this competitive field and rightly so on what we have all seen this season. Now in the hands of Japanese trainer Satoshi Kobayashi at his Lamorlaye base (near Chantilly), the daughter of Newfoundland started her racing career with John Gosden before moving to Erwan Charpy in Dubai but is now back in Europe looking for her eighth career won on only her second start for her new handler. Her only run so far for her new connections was when a seven and a quarter length tenth of fourteen to Qemah at Ascot which obviously gives her a lot to find this afternoon, and although she was worried out of things that day she will still need a career best by some margin to even threaten the places here.

5 REALTRA – The second of three raiders heading over from England, and looking to follow up a win last time out for trainer Roger Varian in the Group Three Browntown Stakes at Fairyhouse over seven furlongs earlier this month. Yet to win in higher class than that, she does look rather outgunned here at first glance, and although the stable are winning with one in four of their runners recently, this looks a big ask and she ought to struggle to get past some of these at the business end of this contest.

6 SIYOUSHAKE – One of two entered her by jockey turned top trainer Freddie Head, and could well be at her peak now after two runs so far this season. Although only third to Taareef at Chantilly in the Group Three Prix Bertrand she was left with a bit too much to do that day and she failed to quicken up as expected on the faster ground, but ought to be a lot happier on this surface, which seems sure to have some give in it. Her fourth to Alice Springs at Newmarket last October gives her some hope here but may well have been a one off and as she is another yet to win in anything better than group three company, she really ought to find this competition way too hot for her here.

7 ARABIAN HOPE – The first of the three-year-olds who get eight pounds from their elders here, and trained by Saeed Bin Suroor in Newmarket who has a ridiculous 33% success rate recently thanks to four winners from just the twelve runners. Lightly raced with just the five starts, three of them successful, she has a length and three-quarters to find with Roly Poly here on Falmouth Stakes form from Newmarket last time out, staying on well over the mile after being caught a bit flat footed when the leaders quickened up, but she did pull too hard for her own good that day and could do better if and when she learns to settle. Yet to race on going this soft and not sure to handle it as a daughter of Distorted Humor.

8 VIA RAVENNA – Hard to assess with too much confidence after just the four runs for Andre Fabre, and a poor three lengths fourth to Rosa Imperial when dropped to six furlongs at Maisons-Lafitte last time out when hampered at the start before running on when the race was all but over. She may well do better back up at the mile and was only three-quarters of a length behind Roly Poly at Deauville in the French 1000 Guineas in May yet she trades at five times that rival’s price in the early markets here. Hard to make a realistic case for, but potentially overpriced considering her earlier form.

9 ROLY POLY – Aidan O’Brien’s filly is a beautifully bred daughter of War Front out of a Galileo mare and has run well in her last three starts after a slow start to the season. Second to stable companion Winter in both the Irish 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes, she stepped up to the plate at Royal Ascot to take the Falmouth Stakes with plenty left in the tank (Arabian Hope in third), and has to be seen as a major player on that form alone. That run was on good to firm ground and her part owner (Michael Tabor) said after the race that “Roly Poly has had some near misses but she’s a tough, hardy filly. She’s small but she battles well and this ground really suits her well, so we couldn’t be more pleased”, leaving the expected softer going here more of a question mark and the only negative in her recent CV.

10 DAME DU ROIS –  Possibly the Freddie Head number one with Maxime Guyon in the saddle and likely to improve for her only race this season when runner-up to Aiming For Rio in the Listed Prix Amandine at Maisons-Lafitte earlier in the month. This will be her first attempt beyond seven furlongs though she is bred to get it (if only just), but will need to improve considerably on everything she has shown so far to have any hope this afternoon, while the stable have zero winners from eleven starts in the last week, which cannot be in her favour here.

Please Gamble Responsibly