July Cup 2015 – The Trends

Key Trends

Some key trends have appeared in the race over the last 10 years and are worth focussing on:

10 out of the last 10 winners had run in past 30 days
9 out of the last 10 winners had previously won at 6f to 7f
9 out of the last 10 winners had won a Group race and all 10 had won a Class 1
8 out of the last 10 winners had their last run before the July Cup at Royal Ascot
7 out of the last 10 winners had finished in first 2 of a Group 1 race

Analysing the trends, both Muhaarar and Brazen Beau fit these trends as do Astaire, Sole Power, Due Diligence and G Force. There are question marks over the current form of both Due Diligence and G Force and the years are possibly catching up with Sole Power. Astaire is a course and distance winner but it is difficult to see him having improved enough to reverse Royal Ascot form with Brazen Beau. With this in mind, the trends point to this year’s July Cup being a battle between the current joint-favourites Muhaarar and Brazen Beau.

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Race Preview

The feature race on the final day of Newmarket’s July Meeting is the Darley July Cup which will be run on Saturday afternoon. The July Cup is a Group 1 run over six furlongs and the race is one of the most prestigious and valuable sprint races in British racing. Historically, the July Cup is a high-class affair with 25 out of the last 35 winners of the July Cup going on to be crowned the season’s top European sprinter. Last year’s race was won by the now retired Slade Power and this years renewal has attracted another top class field.

The current joint-favourites at 9/4 are Muhaarar and Brazen Beau. The three-year-old Muhaarar was a game winner of the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last time out having finished mid division in the French 2000 Guineas and he looks a colt build for speed with victories over both six and seven furlongs so far. Brazen Beau is an Australian Group 1 winner and was a gallant second in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, beating Group 1 winner Astaire into third place. Astaire is also entered in the July Cup and is a best price of 25/1 at present. Other notable entrants for Saturday’s race include Due Diligence and G Force. The Aidan O’Brien Due Diligence was second in last year’s Diamond Jubilee but has been out of sorts since, culminating in finishing a disappointing last of 15 in this years Diamond Jubilee. G Force also disappointed at Royal Ascot, finishing last in the Kings Stand. Winner of the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup last September, connections will be hoping for an improved run on Saturday. Irish trainer Edward Lynam, who trained last years winner Slade Power, has two entrants – Sole Power and Anthem Alexander. The veteran Sole Power is a multiple Group 1 winner but may find it difficult to overcome his younger rivals come Saturday. Anthem Alexander finished third behind Muhaarar in the Commonwealth Cup. Trainer Lynam has commented that he feels Anthem Alexander will come on for her Royal Ascot run and she may offer some each-way value in the July Cup at 12/1.