Friday’s Cheltenham Festival Trends 2019

Friday’s Cheltenham Festival Trends 2019
© Racing Post/Patrick McCann
Sean Trivass
Sean Trivass
Thursday 14th March 2019

Born in to the sport (father owned Northmore Stud and bred St Leger runner up Kite Wood among others), freelance sports writer for over 30 years now enjoying the twilight of his career. Friend to many in the sport of racing, enemy of none (that I know of), massive champion of International racing and has an opinion on everything, though often wrong (allegedly). Nominated for various Sports Journalist Association Awards but a regular "also ran", life goes on regardless with TV and radio work numbing the pain of rejection.....

Today we look at the Friday trends for the Cheltenham Festival to see if past performances can be repeated as some have in previous days and aim us in the direction of the winners of each or any race.

We’ve picked out 3 key trends from each race. Follow the full trends link for each race to see the full set of trends and how they apply to the field.

JCB Triumph Hurdle

  • 19 of the last 25 winners came home in front last time
  • 10 of the last 13 winners started at 13/2 or shorter
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were trained in Ireland

Conclusion: Hard to oppose SIR EREC who fits all three trends listed above and more besides. Currently unbeaten over hurdles and Group class on the flat he ought to be too good for these with a clear run leaving Quel Destin and Tiger Tap Tap the likeliest to follow him home, each matching two of the three provisos mentioned.

See the full JCB Triumph Hurdle trends here.

Randox Health County Hurdle

  • 13 of the last 13 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 10 of the last 12 failed to win on their previous start
  • 13 of the last 15 were first or second season hurdlers

Conclusion: With a few of the runners here matching the stats and more besides,  the best value may lie with ÉCLAIR DE BEAUFEU from the Gordon Elliott yard, though each-way seems the sensible call. His fourth on his handicap debut last time out reads well and he may come home ahead of the Willie Mullins pairing of Whiskey Sour and Cut The Mustard.

The full list of Randox Health County Hurdle trends are available here.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

  • 12 of the last 14 winners had raced over three miles before this contest
  • 9 of the last 14 winners had raced at Cheltenham before
  • 11 of the last 13 winners were six or seven-year-olds

Conclusion: Once again we have a surprising number of horses who hit the bullseye on all three trends but LISNAGAR OSCAR is one of them and he has been steadily supported during the week and currently sits at the head of the betting. Dinons is another of interest as is big priced outsider Aye Aye Charlie and it will be interesting to see how they get on in a race of this standard.

All of our Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle trends can be accessed here.

Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

  • 17 of the last 18 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 16 of the last 18 winners came first or second last time out
  • 16 of the last 18 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

Conclusion: A brilliant race to work with but the trends are our way forward today and according to those stats mentioned we have a two-horse race. PRESENTING PERCY narrowly gets the vote for trainer Patrick Kelly and jockey Davy Russell though Clan Des Obeaux looks a serious danger.

All our Cheltenham Gold Cup trends can be easily found here.

St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase

  • 26 of the last 30 winners started out in point to points
  • 24 of the last 33 winners won last time out
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had raced in the last 34 days

Conclusion: Three trends listed but six found in total (see the link below for full details), and the two horses who match up on all six really catch the eye. UCELLO CONTI seems the likelier winner of the two for Gordon Elliott and with Jamie Codd in the saddle but do keep a close eye on Haymount as well, in good form in point to points and third here in 2017 over further.

Full St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase trends can be found here.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase

  • 8 of the last 8 winners of this race were rated 138 or above
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had raced twelve times or less over fences
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were beaten last time out

Conclusion: A cracker of a race in prospect as usual but the trends point us in the direction of a big outsider in the shape of CROCO BAY who has run well here before and looks potentially overpriced. He fits all the trends mentioned and others besides and can be supported each-way accordingly.

All our Johnny Henderson Chase trends are here for your perusal.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four last time out
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were having their first run at the Cheltenham Festival

Conclusion: The well-fancied Early Doors seems sure to go well here and ticks all the boxes above but at the odds an each-way look at DAYBREAK BOY may pay better dividends. A winner last time out at Clonmel for trainer Henry De Bromhead he has only had the seven starts over obstacles and there is every chance there is even more to come.

All the facts you need are here and our Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle trends are ready and waiting if you are looking for further detail.

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