8.40pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 29/06/2016

IN SUMMARY: Handicap debutante Pecking Order signed off with with a wide-margin maiden win in September and could have a lot more to offer this season but an opening mark of 87 asks plenty of her and preference is for SBRAASE, who has never raced here but is a triple winner at Wolverhampton and returns to the AW on a workable mark, having finished a clear second behind an unexposed rival on turf at Yarmouth this month. Godolphin’s lightly raced 4yo Winter House could be dangerous if bouncing back from a disappointing run in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar but it’s rather unnerving to spot that connections are trying different headgear today. Paddys Motorbike was a very creditable second in a valuable Newmarket contest on his latest outing and is also considered, but he likes an end-to-end gallop and may not have this race run to suit.

1 Paddys Motorbike – Gave excellent account when second in valuable turf handicap at Newmarlet (1m4f, good) last month; ought to be able to cope with subsequent 2lb rise in this lower-grade event and is effective on Polytrack, but is probably reliant on others setting a strong gallop.

2 Winter House – Won Newmarket maiden (1m, good to firm) on sole start in 2015 and might have been given a bit too much to do when second in Lingfield handicap (1m2f, good) after absence last month; flopped when fitted with cheekpieces for Zetland Gold Cup on latest outing but remains one to be interested in now upped to 1m4f and swithced to Polytrack; tried in a visor today.

3 Elysian Fields – Front-runner who completed a four-timer on fast turf last year; not seen on the AW since 2014 and current mark probably demands a new career-best performance but she shaped with more promise than finishing position (seventh) might suggest on last month’s reappearance run and further progress not out of the question.

4 Shell Bay – Won four times on turf last year and also ran well over 1m3f here, but has began current campaign with two very disappointing efforts; ought to find this easier than the valuable Epsom event he contested on Derby Day last time but needs to get career back on track .

5 Pecking Order – Out of a Listed winner and was placed in first three maidens (one over C&D) before easy success at Ripon (1m4f, good) in September; makes handicap debut after 277-day layoff and opening mark no gift, but the potential for improvement is obvious.

6 Sennockian Star – 6yo who boasts a very healthy 11-61 career strike-rate and has collected a handful of valuable events at around 1m2f; yet fully to convince stamina-wise over 1m4f and evidently not as good as he once was but recent fourth at Chelmsford (1m2f, AW) was respectable; can ‘t be ruled out.

7 London Citizen – Missed 2014 and had only a light campaign in 2015; posted good effort when third off today’s mark at Newmarket (1m2f, good) in August but was comfortably held here (1m3f) on last month’s reappearance and needs to have taken significant benefit from that outing.

8 Zambeasy – Non-runner

9 Sbraase – Close second on two of his four starts this year and was clear of the third with an unexposed rival on the more recent occasion, at Yarmouth (11.5f, good to firm) this month; has done almost all of his AW racing at Wolverhampton (triple winner there) but is on a workable mark if this track suits.

10 Steppe Daughter – 0-7 on the AW but ran fairly well when fourth over C&D in November, his first attempt at this trip, and returns here after going close in a small-field event at Brighton (1m4f, good to firm) this month; needs a decent gallop to be seen to best effect but probably won’t be far away.

myracing Forecast Prices: 3/1 Pecking Order, 4/1 Winter House, 6/1 Paddys Motorbike, Sennockian Star, 7/1 Sbraase, 8/1 Steppe Daughter, 10/1 Elysian Fields, 14/1 Shell Bay, London Citizen

Please Gamble Responsibly