6.30pm Newcastle Tips & Betting Preview 01/03/2017

This is a difficult Class 6 handicap raced over 7 furlongs at Newcastle, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: There are some questionable sorts in this field and it may pay to stick with Karen Tutty’s reliable COOL STRUTTER at a nice price. He’s better off at the weights with a couple that finished in front of him last time out and now with cheekpieces applied for the first time, may provide some decent each way value with possible improvement to come. Satchville Flyer finds himself on a fair mark and could be dangerous if Andrew Mullen can deliver him late whilst Disclosure has the potential to run well again for the in-form Les Eyre.

1 ADVENTUREMAN – Returns to action today on an unchanged mark of 61 following a 261 day break. Something may have been amiss on his last start when he was beaten 17 1/2 lengths having weakened quickly and the drop back to 7 furlongs doesn’t look ideal given his best performances have been over a mile on turf. He did win off 56 on his second to last start but the cheekpieces have been left off today and it’s difficult to know what to expect with conditions looking far from ideal.

2 PSYCHOLOGY – Makes his handicap debut today having originally started out in National Hunt flat races. He drops down to 7 furlongs here which is the shortest trip he has faced to date and a mark of 60 looks tough on a horse yet to get within 8 lengths of any winner. He’s started at no shorter than 66/1 on all starts to date and it would be a surprise to see him win this although connections obviously liked something about this son of Shamardal when they paid £13,000 for him last May.

3 ATHLETIC – One of the most experienced runners in this field, he’s been busy at Wolverhampton since the turn of the year and arrives here for the first time off an unchanged mark of 60. John Egan takes the ride today and he’s certainly on a workable mark having placed off 62 in January. Things may just have to fall right for him here though and he’s definitely vulnerable to a couple of possible improvers but Dave Evans has a 14% strike rate in the last fortnight and his runner has a chance here if the change of scenery can inspire some improvement.

4 SATCHVILLE FLYER – Second runner for Dave Evans here and another to receive a change of scenery, making his Newcastle debut today. He’s been nudged down 2lbs following some inconsistent performances at Southwell although today’s 7 furlongs should suit. He’s won over 5 furlongs so isn’t short of speed and if Andrew Mullen can deliver him late, he could have a good chance of success today if he can really see out the trip.

5 JUSTICE PLEASING – Holding his form well with two seconds over C&D beating Cool Strutter and Disclosure in the process. Has been handed a 3lb rise in the weights which will make life a little more difficult but there looks to be more to come from Roger Fell’s runner and he should give another good account here. Ben Sanderson claims 7lbs again which will continue to be a massive positive but his trainer only has a 7% strike rate here and this won’t be plain sailing.

6 DISCLOSURE – Hasn’t won since July 2015 and has shown his best ability over 6 furlongs but he proved he stayed this trip on his second to last start and should give another good account here. Jason Hart switches mounts from Sandstream to ride him today and he’s of interest for a trainer who’s recorded a £7 profit at Newcastle to level stakes and has sent out a winner from his last three runners. With the yard in good form, he has a good chance here and is closely tied in with Justice Pleasing on his run two starts ago.

7 EL TEL – Shaun Harris picked up this ex-Roger Varian inmate for 5,200GNS in February of last year and sent him hurdling where he failed to beat a single rival. He switched him back to the All-Weather on his last start following a 5 month break where he was well beaten, finishing 8th of 12 off a mark of 60 (80/1 SP). He’s looked seriously regressive in his career so far and whilst he may strip fitter here, is very hard to fancy off just 2lbs lower.

8 COOL STRUTTER – Karen Tutty only has a 13% strike rate at Newcastle but her horses have been profitable to back, recording a profit of £6.50 to level stakes. Her runner in this is a reliable sort, having run consistently well at Newcastle since early October last year and although he has only placed once in all of those starts, he drops another 1lb today and the cheekpieces are applied for the first time. He may be vulnerable to one or two again today but he clearly likes it here and there may just be a little bit more improvement to come now better off at the weights with Justice Pleasing and Disclosure.

9 NELSON’S BAY – Has gone 25 starts without a win since completing a double at Musselburgh in May 2015. Was beaten a head at the same track in August of last year but has since shown extremely little on his three recent runs at Newcastle. He’s left on a mark of 52 which looks harsh from the handicapper and although receiving support from the in-form Hollie Doyle (24% strike rate last 14 days), looks up against it under these conditions.

10 SYMBOLIC STAR – This son of New Approach has fallen rapidly through the handicap down to today’s mark of 50 having been initially rated 85 after a maiden win at Wolverhampton for Charlie Appleby. He was later picked up for £7,500 but has rarely looked like returning any of that investment having been well beaten in all his subsequent starts. He ran over C&D last time out and receives the services of Connor Murtagh’s 7lb claim today but he’s another that’s woefully out of form and it would be a surprise should he win here in first time cheekpieces.

11 PRINCE OF TIME – Quirky sort who refused to race two starts ago at Lingfield. Connections left off all the headgear on his last start and he ran well finishing a 2 length third at Southwell and the handicapper has given him a small chance today now left on the same mark. He does lose the 7lb claim of Callum Rodriguez but McDonald is a good booking here with 2 wins from his last 13 rides and a step up in trip to 7 furlongs may do his mount some good here. He’s got a squeak on form, but he’s definitely not straightforward.

12 SANDSTREAM – Unexposed 4yo for Tracey Waggott who produced a fine run on handicap debut last time out when 3rd over this C&D. He was sent off at 33/1 so it may have come to a surprise to connections but the handicapper has only raised him a 1lb and Ben Curtis takes over today. Support in the betting would be interesting for this son of Paco Boy and he’s 2lbs better off with Justice Pleasing for a 1 3/4 length defeat although he needs to confirm that wasn’t a freak run.

13 NEVER SAY – Without a win in 16 starts and looks up against it here again given she’s 1lb wrong at the weights. Her best performances to date have come over a mile at Southwell where she’s place four times although she’s struggled to replicate that elsewhere over different trips. She drops back to 7 furlongs here having recently returned from a 9 month absence but that doesn’t inspire much confidence and she’ll need to find a lot of improvement to win here.

14 JESSIE ALLAN – 14-race maiden who’s shown very poor form in all her starts to date. She races off 1lb out of the handicap here and has started no shorter than 25/1 in all her handicap starts to date and there is little to suggest she’ll perform any differently today. Did finish fourth over a mile here when 200/1 off a mark of 51 but she hasn’t followed that up and it’s hard to envisage success here.

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