5.45pm Newcastle Tips & Betting Preview 22/09/2017

5.45pm Newcastle tips for Friday’s Class 4 staying handicap. This looks like a smart race for the level with at least one who could improve out of all recognition. Read on for our free betting tips, predictions and analysis.

IN SUMMARY: MOBBHIJ looked like a horse with any amount of improvement in the tank when doing everything wrong on his debut but still getting up in the shadow of the post. The step up in trip will suit and the opening mark he has been given could be on the lenient side. Montanna isn’t bred to get this far but he shapes as if he will while Tetradrach is worth considering over this trip now that he returns to Tapeta.

1 RITE TO REIGN – Has only managed to make it to the track three times in almost two years, winless since October 2014. He is still a couple of pounds above that, despite failing to beat a rival home on his 2017 return earlier in the month. The best of his form has all come on turf but he is yet to run over this far on sand (has won over two miles on turf). He could possibly be capable of better but is still hard to support.

2 WOR LASS – One of the stories of 2015, she shot up the handicap winning six starts on the bounce over staying trips. She has a win over this course and distance despite the majority of her form on the Tapeta not quite up to her best efforts on the turf. She has slipped to a workable level having been campaigned primarily over trips short of her best this season – has an each way chance.

3 ON FIRE – Improved a stone so far in 2017, winning both on the turf and on the Tapeta surface here. He showed his stamina for this trip last time at Thirsk when unlucky to bump into a more progressive rival. His own improvement has plateaued, but the level of form he has shown from similar marks this summer show that he is capable of making his presence felt in this field.

4 TETRADRACHM – Lightly raced, his two best efforts have both come on this surface, including here in the consolation race for the Northumberland Plate. He is four pounds lower than when only beaten five lengths in that stronger contest, but a dismal effort since at Chelmsford leaves a few unanswered questions. He would have an each way chance if able to find that previous course and distance form.

5 MOBBHIJ – Seen just the once in his career, a maiden over just short of 14 furlongs at Chelmsford. He was strongly backed on that occasion (opening 9/4 on track), he was eventually sent off at 11/8. Despite looking clueless throughout, his natural ability finally took him to the front close home. The runner-up won a handicap off 73 the next time out to frank the form with this step up in trip sure to suit the Godolphin colt. There appears to be any amount of improvement in the tank and the impression he gave suggests that this mark may be lenient.

6 DOMINATING – Enjoying an excellent campaign for Mark Johnston, he is a typically hardy horse from that yard. He is a winner over this trip, but a potential issue could be the surface. Turf and Polytrack suit him well, but his two runs on Tapeta were both disappointing. They were admittedly only over a mile last season so he could easily shrug that aside now, but they weren’t as good as starts over the same trip either side away from the Tapeta, so he remains a concern until proven otherwise.

7 WHITECLIFF PARK – All three career wins have come on the Tapeta, including over this course and distance in June. That was only a Class 6 and he is a full stone above that mark now, but his last two wins have both come by wide margins which make this mark look within his grasp. The form of the Brian Ellison yard is a little bit of a concern, but he has an each way shout.

8 CHOCOLATE BOX – Got off the mark at the tenth time of asking over a mile and six furlongs at Chelmsford. A seven pound hike in the weights is enough given that he only got home by a neck, but this extra quarter of a mile could see him improve again given the way he hit the line there. Ran fine on the Tapeta last season so he is another for whom an each way case can be made in a tasty race.

9 WAITING FOR RICHIE – Nine race maiden who was bitterly disappointing when trying this trip for the first time two starts ago. He was stepped back down to a mile and a half last time at this track where, again, he looked below his best. Needs a significant step forward if he is to trouble a couple of the smarter rivals he has to take on.

10 MONTANNA – Broke his duck in a falsely run race at this track over a mile and a half when getting the better of a horse who is starting to look like he needs everything to fall perfectly if he is to win. His pedigree suggests that this is as far as he wants to go, but he was outpaced over the same mile and a half trip last time, shaping as if further would suit.

11 STONEHAM – Has the odd quirk, but in general she is a consistent stayer. It was a significantly weaker contest that she won over course and distance in February from a pound higher mark, but it does at least show that she is well enough treated. She has not been in the same form since, however her two runs here are among the best she has produced on the flat, so she shouldn’t be completely dismissed.

12 CARTHAGE – A winner just twice in 31 starts, he has not got close to his turf form when tried on artificial surfaces. He has slid a long way down the weights in the last couple of years, but, under these conditions over a trip he is yet to prove he wants, he is an easy one to pass on.

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