4.40pm Southwell Tips & Betting Preview 22/10/2017

4.40pm Southwell tips for Sunday’s Class 4 contest raced over 5f for four year-olds and older. Read on for our free betting tips, predictions and analysis.

IN SUMMARY: This is an interesting handicap and the vote goes to CAPTAIN LARS. He’s a C&D winner and he’s back down to a reasonable mark following some mixed efforts in less than ideal conditions. He can take all the beating ahead of Lucky Beggar who has contested stronger races than this and makes his first start on the fibresand today.

1 MUSHARRIF – First start on the fibresand today but his form suggests it should suit. A mark of 80 is high enough but he was only beaten 3/4 of a length in a decent Class 4 event at Newcastle last time out and he’s effectively 6lbs lighter here with his rider’s claim.

2 LUCKY BEGGAR – Has been competing in much stronger races than this with credit over the summer including a 4-length defeat in a Class 3 Chester handicap. A mark of 79 is generous and he should go well now switched to the fibresand.

3 ROYAL MEZYAN – 3lbs higher than his last success which came in a Class 5 event at Wolverhampton. This is just as strong as some of his recent efforts at Chelmsford and Nottingham and there may be value in opposing him off a mark of 78.

4 PIAZON – Won a claimer and a seller earlier this year over C&D but this is obviously much tougher and he’s hard to fancy off a mark of 77. He was comfortably held in a weaker race than this at Sandown last time out and others are preferred.

5 CAPTAIN LARS – C&D winner with plenty of form to his name over the minimum trip. He’s 3lbs below his last winning mark and although he’s not getting any younger, this looks well-within his reach and he should go close for the Derek Shaw stable.

6 CROSSE FIRE – Bit of a mixed sort given he usually blows his chance at the start. When things fall perfectly though he’s as good as any in this race and he won off this mark earlier in the year so he’s dangerous to discount in this open field.

7 TREATY OF ROME – Hit a tremendous purple patch earlier in the year at Southwell recording multiple wins and placed efforts. He races off a mark of 73 which remains fair for this ex-Aidan O’Brien runner and he should go well with Tony Hamilton in the saddle.

8 PENNY DREADFUL – Has won just once in 21 starts on the All-Weather and that came at Chelmsford over two years ago. She was beaten a long-way at Newcastle last time out and she’s best opposed on this surface again today.

9 APPLEBERRY – Yet to win on the All-Weather although she did post a good performance over a furlong further here earlier in the season. A mark of 72 looks to give her something to work with and she’s worth consideration now back up in trip switched to the fibresand.

10 NOAH AMOR – Well-beaten at Newcastle last time out which was disappointing having finished second over 5f at Chelmsford back in September. He could return to form here today but he’s untried on the surface and a mark of 69 looks fair at this stage.

11 ACE MASTER – C&D winner but his best form has been over further than this lately and he brings little turf form into the race. He looks up against it in this company now aged 9 and he looks to be regressing. Opposed.

12 AYRESOME ANGEL – John Mackie’s filly has won just once in 18 starts and that came in a Chelmsford maiden back in July 2015. She gets the assistance of Joe Fanning today off a low mark and she has shown form off a pound lower so it would be dangerous to write her off.

13 ARCHIMEDES – Races here just four days after he finished last of 15 at Nottingham. He’s a C&D winner but that came off a 5lb lower mark in a weaker race than this and he’s best watched today in this tougher grade.

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