4.40pm Southwell Tips & Betting Preview 21/02/2017

Eight runners go to post for the ‘lucky last’ at Southwell on Tuesday, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY – My Renaissance remains in great form with two C&D wins in recent times and has to be respected again but this can go to the twelve year old NOGUCHI. A course winner here at different trips, Chris Dwyer’s veteran stays further than this so stamina is no issue and he’s likely to be seen in much better light now back under professional handling. It’s not hard to see him bouncing back for today’s run under Josephine Gordon and a mark of 66 is certainly not beyond him, with it being 4lb below his last winning mark. He’s likely to serve up a very strong challenge and has to be respected.

1 HORSEGUARDSPARADE – Better known as a hurdler these day’s but is a winner on the all weather, with that coming back in December 2015 over today’s C&D. Inconsistent on over hurdles since his stint on the flat and he returns to the level on a pound lower mark than when second over the 1m 6f trip here in March. Certainly has possibilities for Nigel Twiston-Davies with Thomas Brown on board and looks likely to run a good race as long as the drop back in trip doesn’t pose an issue. Has to be considered.

2 NOGUCHI – Twelve year old who is a multiple course winner here and posted a good effort when not beaten far over the 1m 6f trip on his penultimate start in January. Although running no sort of race at Lingfield last time out, he was likely not seen to best effect when setting the pace and should do much better now under professional handling, namely the in form Josephine Gordon. Going back up in trip is also likely to suit and if running to the same level as his penultimate second he’s likely to serve up a very strong challenge and has to be respected, now 4lb below his last winning mark.

3 MY RENAISSANCE – Has been in brilliant form on his last five starts, winning on three occasions and finishing second on the other two runs. His last two runs have been over C&D and a further 3lb raise has been implemented since the latest of those wins. With how progressive he is at present that rise may well not be enough to stop him from following up again under Jane Elliot who claims a useful 7lb. Has to be respected for Sam England and will be in there pitching at the finish.

4 THE LOCK MASTER – Ten year old who is a ten time winner on the all weather, though the latest of those came in January 2016, so it has been a while since drinks. He is however now 9lb below that mark so is certainly well handicapped in that respect, though his latest sixth at Wolverhampton wasn’t a particularly pleasing effort (1m 4f, Std). He does need more today but the Michael Appleby yard are flying at present and rider Alistair Rawlinson is equally good form, very good value for his 3lb claim. Another likely to be involved at his best and cannot be discounted.

5 SATTELAC – Both wins on the turf last year, and hasn’t been able to land a blow in two runs this winter switched onto the synthetic surfaces. Both wins also came at the 1m 2f trip and she has stamina to prove now upped in trip, not looking at stayer on her only start further than that distance at Carlisle in June (1m 3f, Good). Lot’s of question to answer today and other’s have much more solid proposition, so is readily brushed aside today.

6 RALPHY LAD – Last win came way back in May 2015 at Musselburgh (1m 4f, Soft) off a mark of 76 and after a very poor spell this winter, he’s now down to a mark of 58 for today’s outing. He did however show some good signs on his latest start over C&D when second and keeping on well, so all hope is certainly not lost today. Alan Swinbank’s yard are in good form at present, as is jockey Ben Curtis so if building on that latest effort he should be very dangerous of this mark. Has to be respected.

7 PORT LAIRGE – Wasn’t disgraced here in December (1m 3f, Std) but has been beaten heavily on two runs since, including over C&D in January. His latest run over hurdles at Towcester when looking a non stayer (1m 7f, Soft) and there has to be big stamina reservations as he returns to the flat for Michael Chapman. Other’s can have far more convincing claims made for them and are more interesting overall, so he is likely best watched again toady.

8 SENNOCKIAN SONG – Zero from seven on the all weather and still a maiden overall after eleven starts for Mark Johnston. Hasn’t been disgraced on the tapeta surfaces this winter however, finishing fourth at Wolverhampton in December (1m 4f, Std), proving his stamina as he was running on well that day. Makes his fibresand debut today and is very much an unknown quantity on this surface, and looks a very interesting runner with potential improvement likely at the age of four. Has to be respected with Joe Fanning on board and looks the likeliest type today.

9 GO ON GAL – Ran a good race when just unable to run down My Renaisssance over C&D on her latest start, but now has a 7lb turn around with that rival which offers her hope today. Julia Feilden’s four year old still has room for improvement and has been steadily progressing this season, so is likely to be much closer to that rival this time around. Showed she stayed the trip last time out and likely to be in the shake up again and has to be respected as such, though she is still a maiden after thirteen runs which is a question mark.

10 INDULGENT – Still a maiden after twenty attempts, with fourteen of those on the flat. Finished a close second at Ripon in August (1m 1f, Good) in plating company but has been soundly beaten on all six of his hurdling runs this season. Would be a hugely surprising winner with his stamina to prove and is dismissed today.

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