4.25pm Ayr Tips & Betting Preview 06/10/2016

The feature race on Thursday’s Ayr card is a Class 3 handicap over 7f. Our betting tips focus on a steadily progressive 4yo who will be suited by the soft ground. Read on for our horse-by-horse race preview.

IN SUMMARY: It’s easy to make a strong case for the unexposed 3yo, Run To The Hills, who made a winning handicap debut on soft ground in August and benefit’s from Adam McNamara’s very useful 5lb claim here. However, the bookmakers aren’t taking too many chances with opening quotes of around 7/2 and LAVETTA is suggested as a better value alternative. Alan Swinbanks’s 4yo didn’t appear to take to Tapeta when last seen in July but appeared to be making steady progress beforehand and is very well equipped to cope with today’s underfoot conditions. Mount Tahan is in excellent form and also deserves consideration. Lexington Times hasn’t exactly sparkled on his two starts for Ruth Carr this season and doesn’t have a great strike-rate, but don’t be surprise if he capitalises on some help from the handicapper soon.

1 Muntadab – Didn’t run badly when midfield in the Ayr Silver Cup over 6f here last month and is probably better suited by today’s trip; goes well on soft ground but has basically looked too high in the weight since raised 6lb for his hard-fought success at Thirsk (7f, good to soft) in July.

2 Russian Realm – Claimed for £18,000 out of Richard Hughes’ stable after finishing third on the AW last month (7f) and struggled to get competitive when back in a handicap (6f) for new stable 12 days ago; won off today’s mark in April and is effective on soft ground but has quite a bit to prove at present.

3 Mount Tahan – Returned to form with win at Beverley (7.4f, good) in August and posted new career-best performance when close second over C&D (good to soft) last month, having travelled strongly for a long way; untested on genuine soft ground and another 5lb higher now but evidently at the top of his game.

4 Pintura – Suited by soft ground and held on well to score off today’s mark here (1m, good to soft) in July; also effective over 7f but form has nosedived since his win, and it takes a big leap of faith to support him.

5 Lexington Times – Comfortably held on both starts for new stable this season (6.5f/7f) and his 2-22 strike-rate is modest for a horse of his ability; however, he was a Listed AW winner in 2015 and there’s every chance Ruth Carr will exploit his sliding handicap mark soon; soft ground no problem.

6 Newstead Abbey – Stayed on gamely to prevail off a 7lb higher mark at Chester (7.6f, soft) in May and has obvious claims on that evidence but his form dipped markedly afterwards and he was never any threat to the front pair when keeping on for moderate third back at Chester (7f, good to soft) last month; needs to up his game.

7 Westward Hoe – Caused 50/1 shock on heavy ground at Doncaster (7f) last November and followed-up on Fibresand the following month, but hasn’t been firing on all cylinders this year and posed no threat when returning from a break in September; cheekpieces didn’t make much difference when first used; others preferred.

8 Edgar Balthazar – Came from off the pace to win the Carlisle Bell (1m, good to firm) in June and today’s 2lb higher mark ought to be manageable but he’s looked out of sorts since then and soft ground is unlikely to show him in his best light.

9 Sir Billy Wright – Much better known as a sprinter but his win on soft ground at Chepstow in May was gained over 7f; currently 5lb above that mark but gave very good account when close third at Haydock (6f, good) last month and can make his presence felt here too.

10 Ballymore Castle – Yet to add to his 2yo maiden win in 2014; went very close at Haydock (7f, good) last month and today’s soft ground won’t be a problem but he wasn’t in the same form over C&D when last in action and his chance probably depends on others setting a very strong gallop.

11 Run To The Hills – Lightly raced 3yo who was placed in three AW maidens before winning turf/handicap debut at Thirsk (7f, soft) in August; 8lb higher in a stronger race here but a promising apprentice takes 5lb off his back and there’s every chance he can make further progress.

12 Lavetta – Two wins this season, the more recent at Doncaster (7f, good to firm) in June; not in same form on AW debut the following month but still has fairly low mileage and is very effective on slow ground; dangerous to ignore.

13 Moonlightnavigator – Gained deserved reward after string of good efforts when winning at Carlisle (1m, good) in August and will also be suited by today’s trip/ground but last couple of runs, though perfectly respectable, suggests he’s in the grip of the handicapper now.

14 Tadaany – Not an instant success for David O’Meara this season but came good here (1m, good to soft) in August; also ran well when second at Redcar (1m, good) last month but went up 2lb for that and was disappointing when last in action; dropped back in trip today; copes well with slow ground.

myracing Forecast Prices: 7/2 Run To The Hills, 6/1 Mount Tahan, 7/1 Muntadab, 8/1 Sir Billy Wright, 10/1 Ballymore Castle, Lavetta, 12/1 Newstead Abbey, Tadaany, 14/1 Lexington Times, Moonlightnavigator, 16/1 Russian Realm, Westward Hoe, 20/1 Edgar Balthazar, 25/1 Pintura