4.10pm Newcastle Tips & Betting Preview 13/02/2017

A brilliant contest is in prospect for the fifth race of the day at Newcastle, a hotly contested handicap. See our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: This could be a cracking contest as a case can be made for many of these, but none more so than HORSTED KEYNES. He posted a much improved run when a good third at Lingfield on his latest start and dropping back in trip may well suit with his best form at this distance. Tom Eaves takes the ride for David Simcock and a mark of 89 is surely one he can capitalise on to take victory. He can see off the attentions of Angelic Lord who returned from an absence at Wolverhampton and is likely to run much better now back up in trip.

1 REALIZE – Smart on the All Weather for Stuart Williams with a record of ten wins from twenty three races and has been in great form of late. A win at Chelmsford in December (7f, Std) was followed up by a close second at Lingfield despite a 3lb rise (1m, Std) and he looks primed for another big run today under Sean Levey. He remains on the same mark as that latest second which is a career high but is certainly capable of overcoming it for Stuart Williams and has to be respected with stall 2 another positive.

2 STEEL TRAIN – Has been in good form for the most part this season with two victories, the latest of which coming on his penultimate start over C&D in December (7f, Std). His latest run over C&D is best excused and he still seems feasibly treated off a mark of 100 as he has been progressive for the most part this season. Likely player from stall 3 as long as he has a strong pace to aim and has likely place claims for David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope.

3 ANGELIC LORD – Has to be of interest on the best of his form which includes a win at Haydock in July 2015 which was in better company than this 6f, Good to Soft). Although things went astray in early 2016, he returned this season when seventh at Wolverhampton in December, not beaten far and staying on well towards the finish (5f, Std). Going up in trip he rates as an intriguing proposition and is likely to take a big step forward today for the in form Tom Dascombe team. Martin Marley takes the ride and off a mark of 97, he has to be respected.

4 SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR – Has been unlucky on both runs this season when not getting a clear run and despite having to be switched on his latest start over C&D, he finished a gallant third which is likely to have been much closer had he been given a clean run. Remains on the same mark which is 5lb lower than for his latest win, and looks well handicapped for a good run today provided he gets the splits. Has to be respected with in form jockey Oisin Murphy on board.

5 SUPERSTA – Hasn’t been running well this season in the main with his second at Wolverhampton (1m, Std) last month being his only run of note. Only a pound above his last winning mark so does have a run in him off this mark but it’s hard to trust him in this current vein of form, finishing last at Dundalk when last seen a few weeks ago (1m, Std). Others make far more convincing claims and can only be watched today.

6 HOLIDAY MAGIC – Began a winning sequence at Wolverhampton in December (7f, Std) and then scored again at Chelmsford just over a week later in fine style (1m, Std). Despite a further 6lb rise he ran another cracking race to win readily at Southwell on New Year’s Day and ran well in defeat on his latest start over C&D after being raised another 6lb (7f, Std). Now on a mark of 94 which will require more today but has to be feared with how well he is running at present, with Nathan Evans taking off a useful looking 3lb.

7 RUSSIAN SOUL – Ex-Irish nine year old who made a great start for the Jamie Osbourne yard when second at Wolverhampton last week (7f, Std), coming from a mile back to only be beaten half a length. Remains on the same mark today and the inform Timmy Murphy takes the ride, so if he was to build on that effort he’d have to be given leading claims coming out from stall 4. One of the likelier contenders and has to be respected.

8 AL KHAN – Hasn’t been a model of consistency over his career though is a four time winner on the all weather including over C&D. That last win came in December off a 7lb lower mark than today’s and he was well held in a lesser event at Kempton last time out which tempers enthusiasm. Likely to need a helping hand from the handicapper before he can win again, though it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to run on into a place.

9 TATLISU – Better known as a sprinter and handles the all weather surface well, wining here over the six furlong trip back in January (6f, Std). Still on a fair mark based on previous form but there has to be a concern that he wont stay this trip, with his only win at this trip coming in a claimer back in 2013 when he only just held on after wilting late on. In this sort of company he seems unlikely to stay, especially as they’re likely to go a good clip out in front and can’t be put forward on that basis.

10 HORSTED KEYNES – Lightly raced seven year old who has been sparingly seen in recent times, returning this season with a tenth over C&D in January in a race where he was entitled to need the run. A few weeks later however he did show his former spark when third at Lingfield (1m, Std) and remains on the same mark for today’s run with Tom Eaves taking the ride. He’s likely to have come on markedly from that run and dropping back in trip is likely to help as his best form is a the seven furlong distance. He has to be respected and looks to be the likely winner.

11 FAST AND FURIOUS – Dual turf winner at the six furlong trip back in 2015 but returns today from a 449 day absence and is up against it from stall 10. On the best of his form a mark of 85 may be achievable but he’s entitled to need this and best left alone on that basis.

12 FREE CODE – Kept on well to snatch a C&D handicap ten days ago and has been raised 5lb as a consequence, which means he’ll need much more today, especially in a stronger race. Capable 5lb claimer Hollie Doyle takes the ride for David Barron but stall 13 makes this a much tougher task and he looks vulnerable, with place claims the best he can hope for if managing to get across from that wide draw into a prominent position.

13 TESTA ROSSA – Four timer winner here since October at the mile trip, with the latest of his wins coming in January off a 4lb lower mark than today’s. He has however struggled to land a blow the last twice, including over C&D on his latest start when fifth and there are clear signs that the handicapper may well have now caught up to Jim Goldie’s seven year old. If getting a clear run from the back under James Sullivan he’d have definite each way claims but remains vulnerable for win purposes.

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