3.45pm Market Rasen Tips & Betting Preview 18/01/2017

Eight go to post for the ‘lucky last’ at Market Rasen, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: This should be another one for NIETZSCHE, who was useful on the flat and has made a smooth transition to fences, being in the frame on all four starts to date. He’s put up good performances in classes higher than this and he should take all the pegging back with Megan Carberry claiming 3lb to further aide his cause. The likely danger will be handicap debutant Vancouver who should have much more to offer now in this sort of race.

1 ISAAC BELL – Had been showing poor form before being perked up by first time cheekpieces when a good second over C&D on Boxing Day. Raised 2lb for that run and if backing it up in similar conditions he has to have a good chance of winning this, but with how inconsistent he’s been it is hard to trust. Has to be given place claims on his most recent effort but rates as a risky proposition.

2 PADS – Stayed on into third in a seller here over two miles on Boxing Day and makes his handicap debut today off a mark of 115. That mark doesn’t seem particularly generous and he will need to raise him game now that he’s out of plating company but conditions are to suit and Ross Chapman takes off a handy 8lb. Iain Jardine has had three winners in the past two weeks which is encouraging and should have each way claims if the switch to this company isn’t too much for him.

3 BOWIE – Form has nose dived on his last four runs though he did take a step back in right direction when finishing fifth over C&D on Boxing Day, albeit beaten a long way. Hard to make a case for him despite that reasonable effort and another 4lb drop in the weights. Others are far more convincing and most likely best left alone today.

4 VANCOUVER – Ran well on his second attempt over hurdles when second at Sedgefield in December (2m 5f, Good to Soft), keeping on well so it is a strange move to drop back down in trip. He should cope however and is opening mark of 113 doesn’t look insurmountable as he should have more to offer in this sphere, with Neil Mulholland’s team in good nick at present with 5 winners from their last 29. Bound to go well with Sean Corby claiming 3lb and has to be respected.

5 AIR DE ROCK – In good hands with Venetia Williams and still unexposed in Britain, but does need to show much more than he did when falling at Wetherby on Boxing Day, coming down at an early stage. Likely to have more to offer and these softer conditions are ideal, with the trip also seemingly his optimum for now. Charlie Deutsch claims 3lb but does have work to do to overcome a mark of 112.

6 MOVIE LEGEND – Placed twice over hurdles last year including on his penultimate start when a close third at Doncaster in December (2m 3f, Good) and posted a good display over fences since. Reverts to hurdling off a 2lb higher mark which doesn’t look insurmountable but a record of 0-10 doesn’t inspire much confidence. Conditions are fine today and is likely to put up a good showing as he’s tactically versatile, but its probable he’ll find one these too good, so place claims only.

7 NIETZSCHE – Has ran well on all his hurdling starts to date including a win at Catterick on his penultimate start (1m 7f, Good to Soft). Wasn’t disgraced on his latest start either when third at Musselburgh behind some useful types in Class 2 company and drops back into Class 4 company on the same mark. Looks the one to beat and Megan Carberry is good value for her 3lb claim so has to be respected, with this step up in trip not likely to be a problem either and has to have a leading chance in this.

8 JAZZY – Made all with the minimum of fuss when winning at Taunton in December (2m, Good to Firm), but conditions are much different today and a 9lb penalty for that win has to be a concern. This softer ground is unlikely to suit as he’s avoided it for most of his career and seems very unlikely to follow up today, especially as he’s not the most consistent either.

9 NORSE LIGHT – Had gone through a rough patch but ran respectably at Taunton in December (2m 3f, Good) and could be dangerous if building upon that effort off of 1lb lower. Tom Humphries takes off 5lb which is certainly a help and these softer conditions shouldn’t be much of a hindrance as he’s won on heavy in the past. Likely to run his race but looking at place claims only against some stronger rivals.