3.45pm Chester Tips & Betting Preview 06/05/2016

3.45pm – Betway EBF Stallions Handicap Class Two – 5f 16yds

A trappy looking sprint handicap to end the day with and with Kevin Ryan’s record both here (14% strike rate) and with sprinters, it would be folly to ignore the chances of Mont Kiara (5/1) who is a confirmed front runner dropping back to the minimum trip today which should make him a serious player in this field. His only win to date was a Newcastle maiden, but no surprise to see him outclassed in the Group Two Criterium De Maisons-Lafitte last October, and he should find this more to his liking. Whether he is well handicapped off a mark of 92 is open to question (on his earlier form no, and should you really rate a horse on a last of seven?), but he is open to improvement as a three-year-old and his running style around this tight track could give him a better chance than his odds suggest.

We will be watching Tom Dascombe’s Kachy (5/2) very carefully in the hope that last times disappointing effort was simply a one off, though it can also be explained away. As a two-year-old he strolled home here first time out when seeing off Muhadathat by over two lengths, and as the runner up and third were previous winners, all looked good in the World for Kachy’s connections. Next time out he stepped up in class to take on the top juvenile sprinters at Goodwood in the Molecomb Stakes where he had to try his luck against the likes of King Of Rooks where he passed the test with a three-quarter length victory after being produced late on the scene in what looked like a vintage renewal. Put away for the winter, someone had the brainstorm of stepping him up in trip to seven furlongs at the age of three in the European Free Handicap at Newmarket which turned in to a disastrous experiment as he was never at the races and trailed in last of six, though we did note he was pretty weak in the on course market and may well have needed the run. If he is as quick over sprint distances as we hope he is, then he could possibly be a Group class horse masquerading in a handicap, and ought to run a massive race here regardless of his weight.

Naturally, being a handicap there are any number of dangers, and Sign of The Kodiac (20/1) could run well for trainer James Given. He ran really well on his return to the fray at Lingfield when a neck second to Wolowitz when beaten on a bob of the head but was put up five pounds and struggled more than expected next time out when only fifth of eight at Sandown. Officially he weakened up the Sandown hill but we wonder if he downed tools once others went past him, and with a high draw today he may struggle to get to the front and may have to be ridden very differently here.

El Astronaute (4/1) had a decent enough draw in the one box if he can get out of the stalls fast enough to grab the rail, and we think we can ignore his return when fourth at Thirsk where the soft ground was not in his favour. He has won here on good to soft but his better form seems to be on a quicker surface, and with the turf drying out by the hour conditions seem sure to be ideal, and he ought to run a massive race off his current rating.

To round things off, Richard Fahey has a trio of entries at the bottom of the weights with Birdcage (6/1) perhaps his most likely final representative. Trained in Ireland by Ger Lyons last season to win a couple of races at Dundalk, it will be interesting to see if his new yard can bring about any improvement, because if they can, then the daughter of Showcasing would, by definition, be well handicapped. Sometimes a change of air, or routine, or even stable staff can see improvement and if that is the case, then she really has to be on any punters’ short list.

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