3.40pm Carlisle Tips & Betting Preview 10/03/2016

IN SUMMARY: FLY HOME HARRY (4/1) seems to have a lot going for him with the added furlong seemingly in his favour, and a running style that makes it hard for the handicapper to get hold of him as yet. Likely to have a bit more to offer after just the two runs over fences and from a very shrewd stable as well who will no doubt place him to win again.

1 ATTIMO – In these days of inflated prices the fact that he changed hands for just £4300 may suggest he isn’t all that, while the fact that he is still a maiden after ten races (three on the flat, three over hurdles and four over fences), yet still has top weight, tells its own tale.  Now with Sam Drake in Guiseley this will be his first run for close to year making him hard to fancy until we can see if he is improving – or not.

2 GLACIAL ROCK – Although no youngster at the age of ten he has only had the three races over fences here, at Kelso and finally at Doncaster in late January. Struggles with his jumping and reverts to cheek pieces again today, not exactly one to trust when jumping is the name of the game.

3 LENEY COTTAGE – Jockey Daragh Bourke takes a very useful five pounds off here and has ridden him in his last two races so does at least know the horse.  Ran well on his return over hurdles in February behind Snuker over three miles three furlongs but failed to build on that last time out at Catterick. Inexperienced over fences and may well need further than this two and a half miles regardless

4 MAJOR RIDGE – Just the one race to go on over fences when he jumped poorly before pulling up at Newcastle, but he seems sure to have been well schooled at home since and may be a different proposition with that run under his belt. Although nothing special in novice hurdles he did peak at a rating of 100 so is possibly well handicapped here off 95 but only if we assume that he has been taught to jump.

5 ONE COOL CLARKSON – A long list of second places could put most punters off but the form looks better than most and off of 93 connections can have no excuses here. More than useful in point to points and worth a shot under rules, but is another who may yet find the trip on the sharp side though the heavy going may yet slow his rivals down sufficiently.

6 MUMGOS DEBUT – Cast iron each way chances based on his propensity to find one or two better than him in every race with six seconds and a third in his last eight races. Might have been unlucky to run in to some decent beasts or night be the sort who doesn’t want to win – each way option though for those who like that sort of thing.

7 FLY HOME HARRY – One of just the two entries who won last time out after the seven-year-old stayed on well over a furlong less to score at Market Rasen (runner up has won since). That was only his second run over the larger obstacles and a two-pound rise in his rating seems pretty generous, making him the one they all have to beat in our book.

8 HARLEYS MAX – Beat Mumgos Debut less than four lengths at Musselburgh and the meet today on five pounds different terms so it should be close between the pairing. Seems happiest round Musselburgh and may struggle to confirm that form at this different track.

9 RUNSWICK RELAX – In decent enough heart of late with a win and two seconds in his last three races.  Yet to win on heavy going but seems one of the more consistent sorts here, giving him decent place chances at the very least up just a pound for his last run.

10 UNDER THE RED SKY – Effectively out of the handicap i.e. should be carrying three pounds less according to his rating, and with zero wins from seven races under rules, including a ran out and being pulled up twice, he is certainly not for us today.

11 SIMPLY LUCKY – A full seven pounds out of the handicap and without a win to his name despite eight races. One run over fences saw him fall four out at odds of 66/1, and with 22/1 his shortest ever starting price, he seems to run unfancied each and every time he gets to the track.

myracing Forecast Prices: 4/1 Fly Home Harry, Runswick Relax, 5/1 Mumgos Debut, Harleys Max, 7/1 One Cool Clarkson, 12/1 Leney Cottage, 16/1 Major Ridge, Glacial Rock, Attimo, 20/1 Under The Red Sky, 100/1 Simply Lucky.

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