3.35pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 02/04/2016

A small but select field seems pretty likely this year, but with two favourites, a joint favourite, and a 9/2 shot in the four renewals of this race to date, a surprise seems pretty unlikely. This time last year Saeed Bin Suroor collected the winning trophy and he must have high hopes of repeating that in 2016 with Quality Time, a once raced daughter of Exceed And Excel who won her only outing at Chelmsford in November by two lengths from Hidden Treasures. It is pretty hard (impossible even) to gauge her abilities based on that one easy odds on victory, but the stable are expecting a big season by all accounts and she may well be one of the earlier winners.

On official ratings, she has it all to do and Richard Hannon will win the race with Marenko though life is rarely that simple with early season three year olds – fillies or colts. After winning her maiden on her second race at Ascot (and doing so easily by close to four lengths from stable mate Light Up Our World who won next time out), she competed at lofty levels up to Group Two standard, placing in each of them, until tried at Group One in the Fillies Mile and coming unstuck back in eighth. This dies represent a drop in class and on juvenile form she would win and do so easily, but whether she has trained on from two to three is an unknown, and we would not want to necessarily take a silly price.

William Haggas has an interesting entry in Tutu Nguru who may not be the best filly in the race long term but does arrive here with a guaranteed fitness advantage over most having finished second to Haalick at Lingfield in early March over seven furlongs in a Listed race. She ran on well enough that day to suggest the mile is within her grasp, while her starting price of 14/1 suggests they thought she was in need of the run, and with improvement guaranteed they seem sure to try to make her fitness tell in what is looking likely to be a fascinating and educating little race.

Two horses left to talk through and Veena has an all-weather record to date with a sixth and a win at Kempton, but seems to be going the right way for David Simcock and owners Chola Dynasty though the mile could prove to be her undoing yet. On the mare’s side she may just get a mile, on the sire’s side that seems less likely, and as she started over seven furlongs but was dropped to six to get off the mark, we have to wonder why he is even entered over this far unless she has worked over it back at home in Newmarket.

Lastly, James Fanshawe is notorious for bringing them along slowly but surely and will hope he has a really good one on his hands with Zest. Owned by Elite Racing, she was only beaten a short head on her Haydock debut when an unfancied 9/1 chance but followed that with an easy if not spectacular victory at Doncaster over a mile from Very Dashing but that form hasn’t been franked and she will need to offer a lot more this season to win some decent races. That is certainly possible with a mile and a quarter looking to be her optimum trip which creates issues with her chances today with a mile likely to be a little on the short side to see her at her very best.

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