IN SUMMARY: Not quite as simple as it looks at first glance though recent winners Birkdale and Invermere seem sure to be very popular with the punters. Both will run well but in a race full of front runners (who could well go off way too fast and set the race up for a closer), it does appear that Ann Duffield’s BROCKHOLES has got in under the radar and could well be the value call. The handicapper has given her a mark of 69 despite a solid third last time out close up behind two horses who have franked the form very nicely.
1 Quick N Quirky – Two wins from twelve starts so far for this three-year-old daughter of Lilbourne Lad who struggled in Listed class last time out at Carlisle but should find this Class 4 handicap easier. Has to carry five pounds more than her highest winning mark but has Each Way chances after running well in better company last twice.
2 Show Me Again – Best recent form on the all-weather at Chelmsford, no signs of his old self this season though with a last of eleven at Sandown (beaten 16 lengths) and a thirteenth of fourteen at Doncaster (beaten 21 lengths). Drops in trip and weight but seems to have plenty to prove. Hard to make a case for today.
3 Auxiliary – Won two on the bounce at Chester and Newbury last summer off ratings of 73 and 77 so in with a chance of a repeat today dropped down to 77 again – in theory. Five races without a win are a discouragement, and he has not finished closer than three and three quarter lengths off the winner in that time. Has won on good to firm though which is encouraging.
4 Birkdale – Comfortable maiden winner at Hamilton earlier this month but ran on Tuesday and finished just 8 of 9 in this class. Mark remains at 77 and while he should appreciate the step up in trip from 6f likely to be weak in the market even if turned out quickly.
5 Captain Dion – Took his maiden over six furlongs last year at the second attempt and ran well on his return this season at Pontefract when a neck second to Smart Mover, again over six furlongs. Stepped up to seven at Haydock in this class he weakened quickly a furlong out to finish 8l tenth, and looked as if he didn’t stay this trip
6 He’s A Dreamer – Took a Lingfield maiden on the polytrack in Lingfield, his sole victory in eight attempts. Weakening and eased last time out at Pontefract when trying to make all over six furlongs they have tried him over seven and a half furlongs (weakened) and a mile (weakened) as well and may be just hoping this trip will see the best of him with a two pound ratings drop.
7 Invermere – Three places and a win from five starts at two were a good return for the daughter of Kyllachy and she can be forgiven her return when looking in need of the race at Doncaster where she also failed to get home over the mile. Dropped back to this trip last time out over course and distance, she held on well in a blanket finish after being sent to the front at the one pole and could well try to repeat that today.
8 Ordinal – Mark Johnston’s Shamardal colt has three wins from just the eight starts, two over six furlongs as a juvenile and one over seven this season at Musselburgh when beating Desire by a comfortable two lengths. Put up six pounds for that victory he struggled a bit next time out at Ripon when upped in class and dropping back to six furlongs where it all happened too quickly for him. Yet another would be front runner.
9 Firesnake – Visor stays on today despite little improvement last time out at Newcastle over this trip. Beaten close to sixteen lengths that day, he remains on the same rating today (amazingly) and is hard to fancy here as a maiden after twelve attempts.
10 Brockholes – Still a maiden after three races but interesting Ann Duffield sends her here when the maiden route could be so much easier. More room for improvement than most, and not badly weighted in the circumstances off of 69 when only a length behind an 80 rated rival last time out at level weights and with a 70 rated horse nine lengths plus behind her.
myracing Forecast Prices: 2/1 Birkdale, 9/2 Invermere, 6/1 Brockholes, Ordinal, Quick N Quirky, 12/1 Auxiliary, 14/1 He’s A Dreamer, 16/1 Captain Dion, Firesnake, Show Me Again