3.10pm Carlisle tips for Monday’s Class 4 race. Fascinating two and a half mile handicap chase, with a number of front runners in opposition. This should be a truly run test for the £4,873 on offer. Read on for our free betting tips, predictions and analysis.
IN SUMMARY: CALIVIGNY went close here in first time cheekpieces last time with a couple of these well behind. He doesn’t know how to run a bad race at this track so looks an each way steal at the prices. Un Guet Apens is another who likes this track and goes well fresh, he is another solid each way option. Dartford Warbler is a better hurdler than chaser, but he ran well here behind Calivigny and wouldn’t have to find much to get involved in an open contest.
1 GRANVILLE ISLAND – Hasn’t won since January 2014, returning to that mark here under perfect conditions. Could be set for a decent campaign from this starting level but the form of the yard is a major concern.
2 UN GUET APENS – Runner-up the last twice when seen over hurdles last season, not viewed over fences since March 2015. Relishes soft ground and has run well on both starts at this track plus has gone well fresh in the past. An interesting contender.
3 SPANISH FLEET – Finished second four starts in a row last season. His jumping often lacks fluency and can race lazily, especially when taken on for the lead. Others who like to push the pace here so not easy to support with any confidence.
4 CALIVIGNY – First time cheekpieces saw him finish runner-up over this course and distance last time. Has run well here on previous visits with soft ground suiting him perfectly. If the headgear works as well again, he has a leading chance.
5 ARGENTIX – Shaped well enough on his U.K debut, beaten six lengths by a solid yardstick. Soft ground was no issue in France but another four month break since that effort raises a slight concern. Each way chance if capable of defying a four pound rise.
6 WITNESS – Both wins in France came on better ground, struggling since coming to these shores. Potential for better off a reduced mark this season but has no great record fresh so can only be watched on this occasion.
7 TIKKANDEMICKEY – Solid form both here and Hexham in the past, a stiff track and soft ground are his perfect conditions. Ran well enough behind Calivigny last time here, needs a little more but is at least on a winnable mark.
8 ACHILL ROAD BOY – Both wins have come in this country from a pound lower on similar ground. Ideally suited by a little further but this stiff track with a number of front runners should make this a solid test of stamina. Has an each way chance.
9 DARTFORD WARBLER – More than six lengths adrift of Calivigny at this track, a return to hurdles and a step up in trip saw him go close last time at Uttoxeter. Well capable from this mark if he can put it all together over the bigger obstacles.
10 BROTHER SCOTT – Weak finisher has too many runner-up efforts in his career for comfort. Placed off this mark in the past, but this combination of track, ground and trip looks a stretch too far for his stamina.