3.05pm Ayr Tips & Betting Preview 18/09/2015

Race Time: 3.05pm Meeting: Ayr Day:  Friday 18th September Distance: 6f
Full Race Name:  William Hill Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap Class Two

The big race at Ayr on Friday afternoon for most weekend punters  is the Bronze Cup – a highly competitive sprint in its own right, and likely to be used to provide clues ahead of the Silver and Gold Cup on Saturday afternoon at the same track. With high numbers traditionally favoured in the big sprint handicaps, the clever punters (like us!) will not only try to use that to our advantage here, but watch to see the overall effects to confirm our choices for the televised races tomorrow afternoon as well.  As we write, the betting starts at 7/1 with the Michael Dods trained Dragon King (7/1) at the head of affairs as the three year old looks to shrug off a five pound penalty for winning very easily by close to four lengths at Newmarket last time out at the end of August. The son of Dylan Thomas made pretty much all the running that day before quickening clear when asked to go and win his race. There is a possibility that the rest of the field let him have a free run out in front that day and assumed (wrongly) that he would come back to the field so we are not as sure as some that the form is as solid as it looks at first glance, but then again that was only his seventh race (and third victory), so there is every chance there is more to come. The five pound penalty he carries here actually puts him four pounds lower than his new handicap mark, so he is well in as you would expect, but we are sorely tempted to look elsewhere for a spot of value despite the added risk that entails. Gramercy (11/1) sits next on the bookmakers ledger, and after two consecutive victories at Haydock and Chester, the latter over a furlong further than the six furlongs he faces here. That added stamina could yet come in more than useful as this is virtually guaranteed to be run at a suicidal early pace, and from an almost perfect draw in the 24 stall, he seems great each way value for the Richard Fahey yard who do so well in these events (and have own this race twice in it’s six race history), with Jack Garitty taking a useful three pounds off the horses back.

This year’s renewal does seem to have been kind with the draw for the in form horses, with New Bidder (14/1) one of the few course and distance winners in the field and flying out off the 22 stall. He has been rested for a couple of months since winning two races in a row here, and will arrive nice and fresh, though he has gone up another five pounds thanks to the handicapper’s attentions and may struggle to land the hat trick today regardless despite the best efforts of trainer Jedd O’Keeffe. Those looking for something at a bigger price could do a lot worse than Kinglami (22/1), who is also well drawn in the 23 stall and seems a little overpriced. Now a six year old, the Brian Gubby trained son of Kingsalsa would need to put in a career best effort to win off a handicap mark of 89, even with the five pound claim of Daniel Cremin to help, and is yet to race at the track in his 35 career starts, but his draw could be all important so expect a bigger race than his odds suggest. Lastly, but most certainly not leastly, we have to include one runner drawn a little lower (just in case), and with David O’Meara in such fine form how about Flyman (20/1) who is drawn in the ten stall? Danny Tudhope rides which is always a good thing (we wonder how long it will be before a top owner snaps him up on a retainer), but what about the horse? Three of his four victories have been over this six furlongs, and he has won off a mark of 90 yet races off of 89 this afternoon, so who is to say he can’t do it again.  He stays further which has to be a good thing and with his stable on fire (seven winners from his last 53 runners for a strike rate of 13.2%), he at least enters calculations, even if he isn’t our selection today.