3.00pm Newbury Tips & Betting Preview 19/08/2017

A strong handicap field for a race run over the specialist trip of seven furlongs. Our expert tip and runner by runner preview for this contest live on ITV4 is below.

IN SUMMARYMOUNTAIN RESCUE scored in smart style at Newmarket last time out. That was a lower class of race, but he was competitive at a better level that this earlier in the season. He looks the one to beat in a field where the majority have a little to prove at present. Sun Lover looks the main threat as long as he is able to cope with the softening ground while Squats looks the best of those at bigger prices now dropped in class. The last time he ran on soft he was less than a length behind Librisa Breeze, a very smart form line at this level.

1 SQUATS – Without a win since September 2014 when landing a nursery at Ascot. That track has seen the majority of his races since, rounding out his 2016 campaign with a close third to Librisa Breeze in the Challenge Cup on soft. He has shown little in the way of form in four runs this season, never threatening to get competitive. An ease in the weights will help as will the softening of the ground, looks an interesting each way player.

2 IONIZATION – Sole filly in the line-up, she has done the majority of her racing this season on the Scottish circuit. She has shown solid form without winning this campaign, no worse than third in her four starts. She has shown a little temperament under pressure which is a concern given the depth this contest has, while her best form has been over further.

3 FIGHTING TEMERAIRE – Won a similarly competitive handicap at Newmarket last July, possibly hitting the front a little sooner than ideal. He is yet to be seen this season, but runner up on both seasonal returns thus far, it may not be a huge concern. Dean Ivory said after that Newmarket win that he “loves a straight course like this…he has to go straight” so it was to his credit that he ran so well round a bend at York on his final 2016 start. Needs a little more to win this but is capable of stepping forward again.

4 REALIZE – A better performer on the all weather, his three turf wins have all come on quick ground, including twice this season. They were both significantly weaker contests than this one, but he has only had three runs for the David Simcock yard with potentially more mileage in his turf mark given he’s ten pounds higher on the sand. Ran poorly on soft last time and the recent rain may scupper his chance again.

5 MOUNTAIN RESCUE – Took his opportunity in taking fashion at Newmarket last time, winning with considerably more in hand than the official margin. That was only a Class 4 event however, but such was the deep impression he gave, he looks more that ready to make the breakthrough at this level. Went close in the Spring Mile at this track earlier in the season, he just failed to get home in that better contest but was only beaten four lengths. A repeat of that and he is the one to beat in this field.

6 SIR RODERIC – A five time winner in 2016, he has struggled to adapt to more rarefied air this season. His sole win at this trip came at Sandown, a stiffer test at the distance than Newbury, His other successes have been over further and for all that the recent rain is in his favour, he is still tough to support.

7 THEODORICO – Sixteen pounds higher than the first of his three wins in Yorkshire at this trip in 2017. He has struggled the twice this season that his mark has tipped into the 90’s so from that perch once more in a strong contest, he is going to need another jolt of improvement from somewhere to win this.

8 SUN LOVER – Slightly unfortunate not to have won either of his starts this season, showing improved form since undergoing a gelding operation. He has had just the six career starts, so further improvement is surely forthcoming, with a bigger field and strong pace considered pluses for him. If he is as well suited by the softer surface and given sufficient pace to run at, he is a big player.

9 HYDE PARK – Started the season with a promising third in a fiercely competitive handicap at Goodwood but has flopped badly the last twice. A first time tongue strap is fitted now, having stopped to nothing when put under pressure in those poor runs. If it is as simple as a breathing issue, there is every chance he can make the frame at a big price but he remains a risky proposition even so.

10 NOBLE PEACE – Arguably produced a career best on his latest start when a running on second at Glorious Goodwood. The majority of his best form has been on switchback tracks with his four best RPR’s coming at Goodwood or Epsom. He was last of sixteen in his only start over this course and distance so despite holding a strong form chance, this more conventional track is a slight concern.

11 SCOTTISH GLEN – Without a win since July 2015, he has run respectably this season at a lower level. Remarkably given that he is eleven years old, he is still a couple of pounds higher than that win from two years ago which is going to make it hard going for him once more.

12 MAMILLIUS – Showed great tenacity to win at Leicester in June, looking a sitting duck when others were travelling better. That was a lesser race that this one, stepped back to seven furlongs after an abject run over a mile last time. He is only lightly raced so the potential for better is there but he needs considerably more to trouble the principals on this occasion.

13 MR BOSSY BOOTS – Far better horse on the all weather, well seen off in a pair of turf starts already this campaign. It’s difficult to envision anything other than another soundly beaten run now.

14 GRAPHITE STORM – Impressive over this course and distance on his final start as a juvenile, winning in the style of a horse to follow. He failed by a short head to add to his win tally at Ascot in May, struggling twice since on extremes of ground. He is one of only two three year olds in the line up but the softening of the ground is a serious concern on his run last time out.

15 FRANCISCO – Won on his only career start at this trip, at Lingfield on the all weather. He has been kept to shorter so far on turf, including dropped back to the minimum last time on his debut for Tony Carroll. He ran fine there on the soft ground he will face again now, but it isn’t going to help him get home over this longer trip.

16 MULLIONHEIR – Last win came in this very contest two years ago, regressing close to a stone since. He showed just one glimmer of promise when fourth in a Class 4 in January, a far cry from what will be required to win this.

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