In Summary: CYMRAEG BOUNTY is picked to make it four wins from his last five starts, despite another rise in the weights. He won as he liked in very similar conditions last time out and his trainer has an excellent record at Ayr over the last 5 seasons (19% strikerate for +£15.75 to £1 stakes). Vallarta is likely to be the main danger but ran poorly on Soft on his only previous try.
1 Cymraeg Bounty – Handicapper was lenient following some poor performances and has now won 3 of his last 4 starts (overraced when failing to get cover and not given a hard race). Beat Sophie P last time out and raised seven pounds for that but won like a progressive horse over Course & Distance on this Soft ground and doesn’t look to be too much opposition in this field to stop him winning again.
2 Invoke – Had been struggling following hike in weights after back to back Musselburgh wins at the end of last summer but showed better form off this mark last week. Keith Dalgeish hasn’t been firing the winners in the last week though and would want to see more before backing at single figure odds.
3 Alexandrakollontai – Well raced 6 year old with 9 wins from 57 turf starts, but five pounds higher than highest previous winning mark and finished last at Leicester 11 days ago. Could run into a place here in an easier race but unlikely to win.
4 Fullon Clarets – Interesting runner at a big price with promising apprentice Adam McNamara booked. Likely wants better ground than the Soft he’ll face today with best perfomrances coming on Good to Soft and Good to Firm but one to keep an eye on.
5 Vallarta – Outputting strike rate with 4 wins from 46 races, but now 2lb lower than any of his 4 wins and was a winner off 6lb higher than this last June. Well handicapped but keeps finding one or two too good.
6 Be Bold – Opening mark of 85 and competing in good quality races but has struggled since and sold for £10,000 in November. Sent off big prices for last two races and unlikely to be involved again today,
7 Sophie P – Sent off favourite last time out following a 2.75 length defeat when favourite in identical conditions to tonight. Now one pound higher but still lightly raced. Gets a swing in the weights with Cymraeg Bounty but has taken a keen hold in most her races and struggles to see out this trip because of that.