2.05pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 12/02/2016

Race Details

Race Time: 2.05pm Meeting: Kempton Day: Friday 12th February 2016 Full Race Name: Racing UK In HD Next Month Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase Class Three

Race Preview:

A heady mixture of recent winners, improving jumpers, and relative newcomers to the chasing game  – all handicapped to give them equal chances, making for a quite fascinating contest.

1 Lanceur (16/1) – Although rated as highly as 123 over hurdles he hasn’t done that much over fences with just the two runs at Warwick where he was beaten forty six lengths and seventy one lengths respectively. Hard to see why he is rated 120 here and one we feel can be bypassed until he shows any ability at the chasing game.

2 Cappielow Park (7/1) – With thirty-four career starts in total we ought to have a pretty good idea about his abilities and the 120 he races off here is his highest ever mark. He did win last time out at Uttoxeter on heavy ground when fighting off Jaunty Inflight and seems sure to improve as that was his first attempt over fences, and a three-pound weight rise seems reasonable enough.

3 Always On The Run (8/1) – Pretty consistent over hurdles he looked as if he could win more races with a debut fourth to King Of Glory in December but all his best form is over two and a half miles or further including his sole win at Worcester on faster going. Things may well happen a bit too quickly for him today.

4 Money Talks (25/1) – Yet to transfer his better hurdling form to fences he is undoubtedly well handicapped if he can learn to jump off a mark of 119 with his last run over hurdles a full eleven pounds higher. Sadly, his jumping form in two races has seen him thrashed a total of ninety-eight lengths, weakening ion both races over further so we can expect a better run in our view over the minimum trip.

5 Exmoor Mist (10/3) – The in form option with two wins out of three over fences, one at Leicester and one at Newbury, both in December.  Last time out was hard fought by a length but he does battle but an extra nine pounds seems pretty harsh and he may well struggle for the hat trick of his new mark.

6 Buy Back Bob (9/1) – Yet to jump a fence in public he is rated the same as when last seen over hurdles so is very much the unknown quantity here. His hurdling form would give him an excellent chance if adapting quickly enough while Richard Johnson is the best jockey currently riding and will give him every chance though be warned, the Tim Vaughan yard are struggling for winners.

7 Saffron Prince (14/1) – One win over hurdles on heavy going doesn’t necessarily bode well for his chances on what looks sure to be a quicker surface. May well have needed the run on his chasing bow in his first race for nearly seven months and weakened accordingly, but he jumped well enough to suggest he could yet make it in to the places today.

8 Devil To Pay (10/1) – Alan King’s ten year old has clearly had his issues hence just the two races since June 2012. Back in the day he was three quarters of a length second to Sire De Grugy at Taunton over hurdles, but his chasing career to date has only seen a solitary fall when in second place at Leicester. He was looking under pressure that day but was still running well and if he stands up there is no doubt he is well handicapped and looks the value call this afternoon each way..

9 Trojan Star (8/1) – Trainer Kim Bailey is renowned for his ability with young chasers but even he may have his work cut out here. He does have some experience with three runs including a second to Allow Dallow at Huntingdon and a third to Exmoor Mist (winner again since) at Leicester which may help him this afternoon, we just wonder if something else may be that bit better handicapped.

10 Dollar Bill (10/1) – Trained in Sussex by Nick Gifford, the son of Medicean was rated as highly as 122 over hurdles and thus potentially well in off of 110 this afternoon. One run over fences saw a last of three, beaten fifty four lengths at Plumpton but he was up against L’Ami Serge and Doctor Harper that day so never had a chance but this is a lot easier and he could pull off a shock at these weights – Tom Cannon rides.

11 Dellbuoy (66/1) – Three wins from twenty-two races over hurdles, on the flat, and a pulled up over fences at Fontwell do not bode well for the chances of this seven year old gelding who is bottom weight for a reason. Hasn’t won since December 2013 on the flat at Lingfield, a run of twelve races that seems likely to be thirteen by the end of this race.

Conclusion:

A very competitive renewal should be fought out between those totally new to fences and those with decent enough recent form leading us to plump for Alan King’s Devil To Pay (10/1 EW) who seems particularly well handicapped based on his hurdling form, and was running a big race before coming a cropper on his chasing bow. Sure to have been well schooled since at home he could be a bit better than these and looks good value at the price as well.

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