2.05pm Haydock Tips & Betting Preview 30/09/2017

2.05pm Haydock tips for Friday’s Class 2 race. The ITV4 action at Haydock kicks off with a mile handicap, raced in heavy ground. Read on for our free betting tips, predictions and analysis.

IN SUMMARY: A competitive event can go the way of ORIGINAL CHOICE, who won two starts ago at Thirsk easily and only bumped into one when last seen at Chester. That horse has won since and he’s on the same mark, with a break likely to have sharpened this three year old up. With natural improvement, he should be tough to beat here under the in form Danny Tudhope. The main danger is Muntadab, who goes on softer ground and only went down by a short-head off one pound lower at Doncaster two weeks ago.

1 HIBOU – Improving all the time this season, posting his best effort when second in a Premier handicap at Galway in August. Off four pounds higher he failed to fire at the Curragh on his latest start, but he’s better than that and a repeat of his Galway performance would see him with each way claims.

2 MUNTADAB – Has been racing over shorter of late, winning at this venue in soft earlier this month before going down by a short-head at Doncaster. He’s stayed further in the past so stamina is of little concern and he loves softer ground, so a big run would be no surprise.

3 QUIXOTE – Course and distance winner back in April and it’s likely he needed the run when making his stable debut at York with a tame effort. Softer ground is a question mark though and a mark of 95 does demand improvement. Likely to miss out here.

4 ISOMER – Useful two year old for Andrew Balding, finishing second to Churchill at Royal Ascot in 2016 but he’s finished last on both his runs this year. He drops back in class and would be ahead of this mark if at his best, but he’s risky and couldn’t be backed with much confidence.

5 DREAM WALKER – Won a competitive handicap at Galway three starts back but he’s been well held in two runs since, remaining on the same mark as his latest start at Listowel where he was easily beaten. This is slightly easier but others are preferred as this mark looks harsh.

6 KING’S PAVILION – Loves a slog in the mud, winning easily in heavy conditions at Carlisle two starts ago before narrowly being denied a quickfire double three days later. He’s now three pounds higher and should give another good account off this mark.

7 CENTURY DREAM – Looked highly progressive earlier this season, completing a double when winning at Ayr in July, though he was disappointing when last seen at Ascot off today’s mark. That was a tough race though and he’s been given a break, so he does have possibilities here.

8 LORD OF THE ROCK – Had been out of form for three runs before a good win at York in July, raised four pounds as a result. There could be still more to come from this lightly raced five year old who goes on softer ground, so he’s owed respect despite how out-of-form connections are.

CONSTANTINO – Progressive sort on the all weather for Richard Fahey but he is effective on the turf, as proven earlier on in his career. He was last seen when fifth at Chelmsford and needs more off this mark, with the placings the best he can hope for.

10 CALDER PRINCE – Handicapper is fully in charge at present, as he’s been running well with winning off this mark for the last six starts. He goes on heavy ground and is deadly consistent so does have each way claims, but he’s vulnerable for win purposes.

11 FLORENZA – Won a Class 3 event at Thirsk back in August at 40/1 but she’s been well held of late upped in class, well beaten in a Listed race when last seen. A mark of 90 demands a career best by some way and it’s easy to dismiss her chances.

12 JUST HISS – Has avoided softer ground for most of his career which has to be of concern and he’s been well held on his last three completed starts. The handicapper has relinquished two pounds but he still needs a career best here in a tough race.

13 ORIGINAL CHOICE – Won two starts ago at Thirsk comfortably and despite a six pound rise he only bumped into one when second at Chester. He’s on the same mark here and as a lightly raced three year old there is likely more to come. Should be tough to beat with further progress.

14 SPRING OFFENSIVE – Has been sliding down the weights due to several poor performances of late, never better than her finishing position at York when last seen. She’s two pounds lower here but should be happier at the mile distance, so it isn’t implausible that she could out-run her odds.

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