2.00pm York Tips & Betting Preview 13/06/2015

Race Time: 2.00pm Meeting: York Distance: 1m 4f
Full Race Name: Queen Mother’s Cup Lady Amateur Riders Stakes (Handicap) (Class 3)

Free Tip: Barbican at 33/1 EW with Bet365

We really don’t like writing about Lady Amateur riders as we can be accused of bias towards certain jockeys but the fact is that some are either better or simply more experienced than others, and in such races that can make the difference between winning and losing. Our point is that we are now balancing the form of the horse with then potential of the jockey even more than normal plus the handicappers attentions of course so do at least look for the best possible prices – we need to find value here more than ever before. Miss A E Sterling rides top weight Barbican (33/1) and has yet to ride a winner on the flat that we can find, but she has won plenty over jumps and the horse will not be lacking assistance from the saddle as far as we are concerned.  As for the horse, he has had his issues and was off the track from July 2013 to May 2015, when he returned at the age of seven, though to be fair he hardly covered himself in glory when only eighth of nine at Newmarket in a Class Two event. He would be perfectly entitled to need that run and in Don Cantillon has the shrewdest trainer bar none, but whether he has lost all his old abilities is not such a certainty. At his best (back in March 2012), he was running off a rating of up to 111 in Group races, so this drop in class to an amateurs class three will in theory give him an amazing chance of at least getting in among the money.

Sarah Brotherton is one of the more successful female amateurs with one won from four rides in the past five years at York, and 39 winners elsewhere as well! Pearl Castle (5/1) won the race for her last season, and the pairing are reunited again today, though he does have five pounds more in the handicap and, as a son of Montjeu, may well need a little more juice in the ground to be seen at his very best.  He does look as if he has been aimed here specifically with a warm up run when third to Onlyorsenfoolsies (11/1) at Hamilton (re-opposes today on seven pounds worse terms for five and a quarter lengths so it could be close between the pair), though our niggling doubt about faster ground is enough to stop us making him the first choice for us this afternoon. Miss Hayley Moore is not just a very good lady jockey but part of the Moore family that includes trainer Gary, Champion jockey Ryan, and jump jockeys Jamie and Joshua, so we can safely say she has the racing bug in her blood. Whether her mount Two Jabs (14/1) is up to the task is a separate issue, as he has to carry six pounds more than his highest ever winning rating of 79. He is a nice enough horse and seems sure to run well with the expected rock hard ground unlikely to bother him, but may be a pound or three to high to win with at this current time despite his excellent rider.

Ralphy Lad (6/1) is on an upward curve for trainer Alan Swinbank, one of the unsung heroes for punters everywhere (he has loads of winners yet goes virtually unnoticed by the racing media), and the four year old is looking to make it four in a row after wins that have seen him go up a massive twenty pounds in the weights. He did admittedly win with a bit in hand last time out but connections will be praying for rain with all his winning form on going with the word soft in it (apart from Southwell which rides about the same), and it really doesn’t look as if the ground will come in his favour unless we have some very serious storms.  Marmion (10/1) can end our list today as the only three year old in the race getting upwards of nine pounds from his rivals and after winning his maiden at Catterick. At first glance he is a strange option to add but he is trained by Jim Goldie (who won the race in 2013 with Nanton) and will be ridden by Miss A Deniel (who won the race in 2008 on Step This Way who was also a three year old), so we have our reasons! He will need to improve again but has only had three career races so that is perfectly possible – absolutely one for anybody’s shortlist today.