2.00pm Newmarket Tips & Betting Preview 10/10/2015

Race Time: 2.00pm MeetingNewmarket Day: Saturday 10th October
Distance: 7f Full Race Name Dubai European Breeders’ Fund Fillies’ Nursery Handicap Class Two

Those who like to follow racing adages will be fully aware that some say you need to back the top weights in nurseries (stats prove otherwise over a period of time), but for those folk we give you Dawaa (7/1) as a possible winner for the Mark Johnston yard.  Her first three runs failed to even suggest that she had too much talent with a fourth at Thirsk, a length second at Newcastle, and a close to ten lengths third to Chiringuita at Pontefract before the penny dropped and she took her maiden over six furlongs at Nottingham, by no less than four lengths. Clearly that was no fluke as she stepped up from that Class Five event in to a Class Two nursery off a rating of 85 where she beat useful yardstick Sixties Sue by a length and a half giving the Channon horse two pounds and a beating. Sadly for connections she has been hammered with a nine pound rise in the weights for that success which seems pretty harsh to us, but she is clearly going form strength to strength and it will be interesting to see how she gets on here with a victory suggesting she could even be Group Three class.

We are still big fans of Sir Michael Stoute, and remain convinced that given the ammunition he is as good as he has ever been, in which case Ryan Moore may well get a tuner out of maiden winner Barleysugar (6/1), who we are quite sweet on (sorry). Owned and bred by Mrs James Wigan, the daughter of Kyllachy was runner up to Mise En Rose (also entered here) on her Kempton debut, but was very easy to back at 8/1 and clearly thought to be badly in need of a race. She showed the benefit of that effort back at the same track next time out when sent off the 9/4 favourite before gong clear inside the last furlong for an eased down success of over two lengths from Dutch Destiny and the chasing pack. That form is hard to judge at this early stage and was only a maiden, but there was talk of Group races so if she runs in a nursery she could yet be well in off a mark of 85 today.

Anyone who follows the Andrew Balding yard (as we do) will be fully aware that a debut winner is a bit of a rarity as the trainer invariably leaves plenty to work on and brings them along gradually to reach a peak, so where does that leave Make Fast (12/1)? She was sent off at a generous 8/1 at Ffos Las in a five horse race, but belied her market position of fourth favourite that day to win by a length and a quarter, staying on strongly over the six furlongs that day.  With improvement almost a guarantee as with all the stables juveniles, and the extra furlong seemingly ideal today, she is certainly a very interesting contender off a mark of 78 which we are almost certain is not a true reflection of her abilitie,s and she is near to the top of our each way options list, while we await the make up of the final field.

Newmarket trainer Chris Wall is yet another who is having a landmark season with plenty of decent winners already in 2015, and he will be wondering if he has a decent filly on his hands with Mix And Mingle (10/1), a twice raced daughter of Exceed And Excel who set connections back 50,000 Guineas at the Tattersalls sales. After a respectable and perhaps educational third at Newmarket when beaten a length and a half in receipt of three pounds by Light Up Our World (now rated 100), she went on to win her maiden next time out at Lingfield when pulling close to four lengths clear of her field, and off what seems a very workable rating of 82, she is another who fully deserves her place on the short list and is a very serious contender here off a generous mark.

Once again we complete the circle with a William Haggas runner, this time via Symposium (7/1) who has also only had the two runs, and could be anything.  Another stable whose juveniles invariably need their first run, she was a better than expected close up fourth to Irish 1000 Guineas entry Czabo at Newbury first time out, and with the third and fifth scoring since, the form has an above average look about it. A win next time out at Wolverhampton confirmed she is going the right way, and she would arrive here with decent chances, though at this stage we do feel others have better chances based on the formbook if nothing else.

 

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