1.40pm Chelmsford Tips & Betting Preview 27/12/2015

1.40pm Chelmsford Sunday 27th December

Free Tip: Aumerle at 7/2

Race Details

Race Time: 1.40pm Meeting: Chelmsford Day: Sunday 27th December 2015 Full Race Name: Totequadpot Your Four Legged Friend Handicap Class Five

Betting Preview

Just the five runners is a bit disappointing but we don’t choose the Channel 4 races and do at least like the look of Aumerle (5/1) to win this afternoon. A three-year-old son of Authorized, he looks quite well weighted in comparison to the others and won quite nicely last time out over course and distance, so we know he has all the stamina required. Given a couple of months off to continue to strengthen, he will have Callum Shepherd in the saddle to take off a very valuable seven pounds, and we hope that is enough to sway things in his favour as he steps up in grade to this class five contest.

Trainer John Jenkins does remarkably well with his string without too many superstars and has already got three wins out of Belrog (15/8) in his last three races, two here and one at Wolverhampton. Sadly for his connections, the handicapper has put him up a total of nineteen pounds for those successes and he may not find it quite so easy from now on. He does stay further than this mile and three quarters (or so) which may be a good thing if they go too fast, but has to give a stone to our selection (including the jockey allowance), which we feel may just be beyond him today.

For a small race there are a lot of last time out winners here (three out of five to be precise), and Kelly’s Finest (5/1) is the last of that trio and with trainer Michael Appleby as consistent as any trainer we can think of, he is a serious danger. He did finish seven lengths behind Belrog two races ago but re-opposes on eight pounds better terms, which may just swing things in his favour, and although we are happy we have found the winner, it looks awfully tight among all the other runners.

Anyone who follows racing will be quite aware of the rapid rise of David O’Meara, and top weight may be the only thing that stops Sinakar (6/1) this afternoon. Although soundly beaten last time out at Southwell, that is a very different (slower) surface and can be ignored, leading us to his previous run when he was a head second to Bulas Belle at Catterick. He did win a Class Six handicap at Ayr but hasn’t won yet on the all-weather which is a concern as you never know if they will handle the kick back, which when added to top weight may be enough to anchor him today.

Lastly, Chris Dwyer sends the veteran ten year old Noguchi (9/1), an all weather specialist these days with thirty-eight starts and nine wins over the last five years or so. Originally trained in Italy and then moved on to France, he has won off much higher handicap marks than today so is most certainly not out of his depth, but whether he still has that ability as he gets older is open to question.