4.45pm Goodwood Tips & Betting Preview 02/08/2017

An interesting contest sees a mix of in-form options and those dropping into handicap class after failing in better races. A mile and a quarter requires a mixture of speed and stamina though the drying ground will make it less of a test than it could have been with further rain. Our full race preview for the 4.45pm at Goodwood plus our selection follows below.

IN SUMMARY: Top weight may not be enough to stop SKIFFLE (Each Way) here as the Godolphin owned filly drops into handicap company which she should find a lot more suitable. A one-time classic hope she may well prove too good for them here and is the value call at these prices by some margin.

1 SKIFFLE – One time strong Oaks fancy in 2016 and sent off the 6/1 second favourite at Epsom before finish a twenty length fifth to Minding when seemingly failing to get the mile and a half. Yet to win in three races since with a twenty-seven lengths last of seven to Somehow in the Group Two Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket when failing to handle the track and a six length sixth to God given in the Listed Aphrodite Stakes last time out weakening late back over a mile and a half. Cheekpieces added and dropped in to handicap company and cannot be easily dismissed for the in-form Charlie Appleby stable even with top weight and looks to have a very solid chance at a price.

2 ICKYMASHO – In great form at Chelmsford on the all-weather this season with three wins and a second this year but not sure to be anywhere near as effective on turf. Last run on grass was a twenty-eight length last at Windsor in a lesser handicap over this trip, and although a respectable third in a Listed race at Deauville last time out, that was also on the all-weather and she may struggle here off of a mark of 97 which is a career high.

3 INDULGED – Signed off last season with a win at Lingfield on the polytrack and returned with another win at Doncaster on a much softer surface when beating High Hopes a length and a quarter. Put up seven pounds she hasn’t been seen for over two months suggesting she may well have been saved for this by trainer James Fanshawe who is hitting a 12% success percentage in the last two weeks with two winners from the seventeen attempts.

4 SAGELY – Trainer Ed Dunlop is in among the winners lately but may struggle to get the daughter of Frozen Power to the front where it matters here even after a solid third to Standing Rock at Salisbury last time out. This is a better race but she will have been laid out for it having finished second here last season and off a pound lower this season could yet surprise a few with Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle.

5 INDIAN BLESSING – Four runs without a win so far this season, the last three in Listed class and should appreciate the return to handicap company here. Only beaten a length by Araaja at Vichy in France last time out she seems sure to run well again here, though a race record of one win from six suggests she is hard to win with and a place may be the more realistic outcome.

6 UELE RIVER – Off the track from September 2015 to May this year and yet to win in two races since. Finished three lengths adrift of Standing Rock in fourth last time out at Salisbury and worse off with Sagely who finished third but better off with runner up Billesdon Bess. Needs to improve but ought to be fully race fit now.

7 TURNING THE TABLE – The booking of Ryan Moore to ride the daughter of Mastercraftsman looks interesting as she has talent when she chooses to use it and needs the right handling from the saddle. Her last win was at Windsor over further but she was put up six pounds for that and has struggled in two races since. Has a bit to find on Salisbury form and others appeal more unless Ryan can get a tune out of her.

8 TITI MAKFI – Four wins from her first four races this season for trainer Mark Johnston and ran well enough in defeat last time out at Newmarket when fifth to Marzouq, less than three lengths off the winner. May well be in the grip of the handicapper now but cannot be dismissed for a stable with a 22% strike rate in the last fourteen days.

9 ARGENTERIE – Lightly raced for trainer Marcus Tregoning with four starts and a comfortable maiden win at Salisbury last season as a two-year-old. Unsurprisingly outclassed in the Group Two Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket she reappeared in the Cheshire Oaks with a one paced sixth to wonder filly Enable and may well improve for her first race of the season. One for the shortlist. 

10 EBBESBOURNE –Two wins from four starts for the Sir Michael Stoute trained filly with a maiden at Chelmsford first time out last year and a decent York handicap over further than this in May. Finished a good second to Elas Ruby in a Listed race at Newbury last time out beaten three and a half lengths at the line, running on over this trip, and every chance dropped to handicaps company off this weight if they go fast enough early on to let her bring her stamina in to play. Stable could be in better form though with just the one winner from twenty-one runners in the last two weeks.

11 LADY PERIGNON –Has to carry three pounds more than her handicap mark thanks to the race conditions and tries this trip for the first time after a poor nine length ninth of ten on her seasonal debut at Windsor over a mile. Stable are profitable to follow lately with a 16% strike rate and close to 24 points of level stakes profit but this looks likely to prove beyond her unless she shows dramatic improvement.

12 BILLESDON BESS – Likes to make the running when possible and may find herself struggling to get to the front early in this field. Finished in front of Sagely, Uele River, and Turning The Table in that order last time but may struggle to uphold that form at the revised weights and has a bit to find to get involved here. Richard Hannon stable are going well with thirteen winners in the last two weeks and a level stakes profit of close to 37 points. 

13 THREE DUCHESSES – Looking for her hat trick here after wins at Yarmouth and Catterick in Class Five events but has been put up eleven pounds for the second of those and has been forced dramatically up in class. David Egan takes five pounds off her back here which can only help and she does seem to be improving for trainer Michael Bell but will need a career best to win this for her Newmarket stable.

14 MISTIME – Off for over a year now after finishing third to Pleaseletmewin in a Newmarket handicap and steps up in trip from seven furlongs to this mile and a quarter. Doesn’t appear to be bred for this trip as a daughter of Acclamation out of an Anabaa mare but trainer Mark Johnston may know better, and a market watch may yet reap dividends though she is hard to make a sensible case for after her long lay-off in this highly competitive renewal.

15 WHITE CHOCOLATE – Three wins in a row included a course and distance victory in June before she failed to act around Chester when runner up to Titi Makfi. Five pounds better off with the winner here and may well do a lot better back at this track with the David Simcock stable ticking over nicely with a 14% strike rate and a small level stakes profit. Certainly one to include in calculations. 

16 LA CASA TARIFA – Bottom weight for Mark Johnston’s third option but possibly the stable first string with Joe Fanning in the saddle, though that may also be to do with which jockey can do eight stone two. Her two wins this season have been over seven furlongs at Ripon and a mile at Ripon before a last of five at Nottingham, over thirteen lengths adrift of the winner. She fell out of the stalls that day giving away fifteen lengths at the start in a race you can put a line though, and although she rightly remains on the same rating, she seems sure to run another big race here.