3.40pm Gowran Park Tips & Betting Preview 24/04/2016

IN SUMMARY: Well-bred 3yo Discipline won a 7f course maiden with minimal fuss on her debut a fortnight ago and it will be very interesting to see how well she copes with today’s significant rise in class. However, she faces a very tough opponent in BOCCA BACIATA (3/1), who carries a 3lb penalty for last summer’s Group 3 success but gave a very good account of herself until her stamina ebbed away in a 1m4f Group 1 contest on Champions’ Day at Ascot in October. Ebayya lacks a recent run and would make more appeal over 1m4f but has proved she can get competitive at this level. Steip Amach and Orcia are also very talented but the former has a poor strike-rate and the latter seems best on artificial surfaces.

1 Bocca Baciata – Easily won a Group 3 event at the Curragh (1m1f, yielding to soft) last summer and was very creditable fifth at Ascot on Champions’ Day in October, where she looked stretched by 1m4f; heavy ground the obvious excuse for her disappointing seasonal reappearance three weeks ago and she’s the one to beat here.

2 Duchess Andorra – Fairly useful handicapper who finished second in a 4f dash on snow in Switzerland in February; also ran well when sixth in Irish Lincolnshire at the Curragh (1m, yielding to soft) last month (refitted cheekpieces) but faces a tough task at today’s weights.

3 Ebayya – Won her maiden over C&D (good) last summer and was placed in 1m4f Listed events on both subsequent outings, at Galway and the Curragh; probably won’t be far away but this drop back in trip may not be ideal on first start since October.

4 Orcia – Back in the care of Mick Halford after a spell in France last season; in good form on AW surfaces when last seen, winning over 1m1f in November before finishing second in a Listed event over today’s trip at Deauville in December; claims on that evidence but 0-5 turf record reduces her appeal.

5 Rivers Of Babylon – Evidently didn’t respond well to fitting of blinkers (now removed) when well beaten in Irish Lincolnshire on last month’s seasonal debut; capable of much better and one of her two wins last year was gained over C&D, but a minor role is probably her best hope in this company.

6 Steip Amach – Well beaten in Curragh Group 3 on last month’s seasonal debut and has poor strike-rate (1-15) for a filly of her ability, but today’s faster ground ought to show her in a better light and she was competitive in Pattern company on a few occasions last season.

7 Discipline – Sister to stable’s prolific Listed/Group winner Famous Name and easily justified short-priced favouritism in five-runner course maiden (7f, heavy) on debut a fortnight ago; takes on much stronger opposition today but could be anything.

8 Flirt – Opened account in run-of-the-mill nursery at Down Royal (7f, good) in September, her seventh start; respected trainer evidently feels she’s worthy of her place in this line-up, but she needs to have made significant progress over the winter.

myracing Forecast Prices: 13/8 Discipline, 11/4 Bocca Baciata, 6/1 Ebayya, Steip Amach, 8/1 Orcia, 16/1 Rivers Of Babylon, 33/1 Duchess Andorra, Flirt