2.00pm Carlisle Tips & Betting Preview 05/11/2017

2.00pm Carlisle tips for Sunday’s Class 4 race. Not the deepest handicap hurdle ever run at the track but there are a number of unexposed types who promise to be better than their current mark. Read on for our free betting tips, predictions and analysis.

IN SUMMARY: OCEAN ELEVEN has not shown the same level of form over hurdles as he did on the flat, but this will be his first hurdling try on soft ground. His mark is just twenty pounds above his flat one which suggests he is well in. Celtic Flames is worth considering to make the frame, he looks as if he will be better than this mark this season. Chozen is one of just two runners on the card for Tim Vaughan who brings his runners up from South Wales.

1 DULCE PANEM – First run since arriving from France, where third was the best he achieved in nineteen runs. The cheekpieces he wore most recently are removed, doesn’t look well handicapped on his debut here, best watched.

2 CELTIC FLAMES – Smart form in 2015, not got close to that in a pair of runs so far this year. Shaped with promise on his seasonal return without suggesting he was a next time winner. Worth considering for a place, surely better than this mark later in the season.

3 BRIDANE REBEL – Point to point winner in Ireland but the best of her form under rules has come at about this trip. She is lightly raced enough to have some improvement in her but she will need it to do more than nick a place here.

4 OCEAN ELEVEN – Solid yardstick on the flat, his best run coming on soft ground at Yarmouth. A mark just twenty pounds above his flat one suggest he is very well treated in this game with cheekpieces back on. Fascinating contender.

5 CHOZEN – Mildly progressive in novice events, he should be capable of better now that he is sent handicapping. One of just two runners for his yard making the long trip north. Interesting each way chance.

6 HERECOMESNELSON – Not seen since February 2016. Conditions are perfect for him while the handicapper has given him a chance with an eight pound drop. That said he is fully entitled to need this and is best watched.

7 VERSIFIER – Couple of glimmers of form in novice events, she has shown nothing in two handicaps so far. In the right hands to find her level eventually but not easy to support on this occasion.

8 CASTLETOWN – Not come close to repeating his French form so far in this country, falling quickly down the weights. He travelled well for a long way on his Kelso return, but this step down in trip doesn’t strike as a positive move.

9 BERING UPSUN – Hinted at ability in some decent novice events last season. Starts handicapping from a fair looking mark on that level of form but a stiff track is a slight concern for a horse who has finished weakly in the past.

10 INSTINGTIVE – Just 1/15 overall, that win when coming against a horse who finds absolutely zero off the bridle. That was over fences where all his best form has come, makes very little appeal in this discipline.

11 WIG WAM WIGGLE – Showed ability in bumpers but has been beaten out of sight on his three runs over hurdles, Even this mark of 87 looks far too high on his level of form over obstacles, can only watch.

12 CHRISTMAS IN USA – Forty pounds lower than when starting out for this trainer, he has shown few signs of halting the decline. Tough to give any kind of chance to even from this low.