The Top 5 Tracks for Draw Bias in the UK – these are a must know to take into account when betting or you could be throwing money away! Here are our top 5 tracks where you should take into account the draw bias, backed up by statistics.
When looking at a horse race punters take many things into consideration, such as the horses form, the going and the distance of the race. One piece of information that is sometimes overlooked however is the horses draw. At some racecourses, the stall number that a horse is drawn can have a huge influence on its chances of winning a race. If you’re confused about what draw bias is, click here to read our guide explaining draw bias before reading on!
In UK horse racing the most profound draw bias are at the following racecourses;
- Chester – Significant advantage to be drawn low.
- Beverley – Significant advantage to be drawn low.
- Lingfield (Turf) – Significant advantage to be drawn high.
- Thirsk – An advantage to be drawn high.
- Catterick – An advantage to be drawn low.
Below we look in more detail at the racecourses listed and explain in more depth the specific draw bias.
Chester is the oldest racecourse in England still in use and is also one of the smallest. Comprising a 1m and 1f loop Chester has the most extreme draw bias of all UK courses and is also probably the most well-known. Due to the tight nature of the track, the need for early speed at Chester is vital to get to the front and to make use of any favourable draw. The draw bias is most prevalent over 5f but it is still a factor over 6f and 7f and the larger the field, the more important it is to be drawn low. The last 180 horses drawn stall number 11 or higher over 5f at Chester have ALL failed to win – highlighting how significant the bias is. Soft ground can also have an impact on the draw however, with the inside of the track sometimes getting chewed up, leaving better ground on the outside.
The 5f course at Beverley has one of the most distinct draw bias of any racecourse in the UK with a massive advantage in being drawn low. An uphill finish that also slopes to the left means that horses drawn high have to run further than horses drawn low. Stall numbers 1 and 2 have 70 combined wins from the last 490 runs, with stalls 10 and 11 having just 11 combined wins in the same time span. The bias also applies to 7f races and to soft ground also, due to the fact that high drawn horses have to run so much further.
The turf course at Lingfield has a significant advantage to horses drawn high over the 5f, 6f and 7f courses. A high draw means being closer to the running rail meaning that horses drawn high have less distance to cover than those drawn low. The most commonly used stalls at Lingfield for the 5f course are numbers 1-8 and for the last 74 races stalls 5-8 had 36 winners with stalls 1-4 producing only 15 winners. Although not used often due to the normal size of the fields, stalls 16-20 have an excellent strike rate when used.
Thinks offers an advantage to horses drawn high, with high drawn horses being closest to the running rail which offers good track position for those that break smartly. High numbers have an excellent strike rate over the last 160 races with 39 winners of three-year old + handicaps over 5f being drawn high with only 7 being drawn low. Although a small sample size, the figures do indicate the importance of the draw. Soft ground can affect the draw however, with runners tending to stay to the middle of the course rather than coming to the running rail.
The draw bias at Catterick offers runners drawn low over 5f-7f an advantage over those drawn high. Catterick is a sharp track which is downhill almost the whole way incorporating a slight left-hand bend which offers the advantage to those drawn low. The strike rate for stall numbers 1-6 is roughly 10% with stall number 9-15 only returning a strike-rate of 3%.
With this information, you can see that the stall a horse is given at the above racecourses can have a massive influence on it’s chances of winning. Next time you are looking to have a bet at racecourses such as Chester, remember to take the draw into consideration – it may well pay off.