Tingle Creek Chase Trends 2016

The Tingle Creek Chase is a Grade 1 Steeplechase for horses that are 4 years old or older, and is one of the key 2m races of the season. It also gives us an indication for the Road to the Cheltenham Festival, as many of the runners will be destined for Prestbury Park come March in one of the two mile races. The prestigious role of honour includes horses like Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star, Master Minded and most recently Sire De Grugy in a thrilling 2015 renewal. Read on for our Tingle Creek tips & preview for what is an exciting renewal of the race and as always follow us on Twitter for the latest news and opinions leading up to one of Sandown’s feature races of the season.

• LUCK OF THE IRISH – Since 2000 the Irish have sent 10 runners to the race, with 4 winning, constituting to a 40% strike rate.
• FRENCH BRED SUCCESS – 9 out of the last 12 Tingle Creek winners were French Bred, with Un De Sceaux, Sire De Grugy and Vibrato Valtat being the French breds in this seasons renewal.
• SHORTER ODDS – Only one horse since 2004 has won the Tingle Creek at odds of higher than 6/1, with that being Dodging Bullets in 2014 at 9/1.
• GOOD LAST TIME OUT RUNS – 11 out of the last 12 winners finished in the Top 3 on their run before the Tingle Creek. The only exception to this is Sire De Grugy who finished last in the Haldon Gold Cup on his prep run for the race last season.
• GRADE 1 SUCCESS – 19 out of the last 22 previous winners had all won a Grade 1 before winning the Tingle Creek.
• NICHOLLS DOMINANCE – Paul Nicholls has won this race 9 times since 1999 including a jaw dropping 6 in a row from 2005 to 2010. He saddles one this year which is Vibrato Valtat who finished 3rd in last year’s renewal.

Taking into account all of these trends, the pick would be UN DE SCEAUX, who fits into most of the above.

Overview

The Tingle Creek is one of the premier 2 mile races of the season and as such Grade 1 experience is very important; the fact that only 3 winners in the last 22 renewals had not previously won a Grade 1 race shows that the best of the division and top novices have been aimed at this race.

With the very tough railway fences down the back straight, jumping is of huge importance and the fences are very unforgiving; mistakes rarely go unpunished round Sandown. In the jumping department Ar Mad has to be put forward, as the way he has jumped at Sandown in the past, including when he won the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase last season, was stunning to watch.

Another key point to remember is that Nicholls’ dominance of the race is largely down to the jaw dropping ammunition at his disposal from 2005 to 2010 which included Kauto Star, Twist Magic and Master Minded. As always in the biggest races he is very dangerous to discount but Vibrato Valtat will have to improve massively for the drop back in trip to feature heavily in this year’s renewal.

It’s also interesting to note the price of winners in past renewals, as only Dodging Bullets has won the race at odds of higher than 6/1 since 2004, proving that most previous winners were highly fancied in the market and one of the best in the division at the time.

The trends will a huge boost to the chances of the Mullins’ runner Un De Sceaux, who fits the main bulk of the trends and heads the market for this seasons renewal. He may well be hard to beat if on top form.

Our Channel 4 racing tips will be live on Friday evening at about 7pm but our Channel 4 racing previews are now available to read. Sandown racecourse will host some top class action this weekend and everyone is looking forward to getting stuck in.