Glorious Goodwood

Nassau Stakes – The Trends

Thursday July 30th 2015 - 12:22

Saturday sees the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, one of the feature races on the final day of of the five day Glorious Goodwood meeting. Run over 1m 1f, the Nassau Stakes is a Group 1 contest and is open to fillies and mares aged three years or older. Won by the John Gosden trained Sultanina last season, this years Nassau is as competitive as it comes, with three Group 1 winning fillies entered and horses from the UK, Ireland and France all set to clash.

The current ante-post favourite is the David Wachman trained filly Legatissimo. Winner of the British 1000 Guineas at the start of May, Legatissimo has since suffered short head defeats in the Epsom Oaks and the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh where Diamondsandrubies, who is also entered in the Nassau, bravely held on.

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Key Trends

Some key trends have appeared in the Nassau Stakes over the last 10 years and are worth focussing on:

  • 9 out of the last 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time
  • 9 out of the last 10 winners had won a race that year
  • 8 out of the last 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
  • 7 out of the last 10 winners had won 1 of last 2 starts

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Of the nine entered horses, only six finished in the first 4 on their last run, the exceptions being Bright Approach, Arabian Queen and Jazzi Top. All of these six have won a race this year with and all six have also run 2 to 5 times this season. The key trend to focus on is horses who have won 1 of their last 2 starts and for this, only three fall under this trend – Diamondsandrubies, Star of Seville and Wedding Vow. Wedding Vow won a Group 2 at the Curragh last time out and the Nassau will be her first attempt at a Group 1 contest. Diamondsandrubies defeated Legatissimo in the Pretty Polly Stakes, making all and bravely hanging on for triumph. Star of Seville got back to winning ways after a disappointing run in the Epsom Oaks with victory in the Prix De Diane Longines at Chantilly. Fitting all the main trends and with Group 1 winning form, the Nassau Stakes looks set to be a battle between Diamondsandrubies and Star of Seville. John Gosden has won the Nassau for the last three seasons and with Star of Seville he could well make it a fourth straight victory. Diamondsandrubies trainer Aiden O’Brien has won the Nassau twice before and he will hoping that his filly can follow up her Pretty Polly success with victory on Saturday.