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Welcome to our new article – “Get Layed” – where we will give a daily horse (or two) which we don’t think will win! Laying involves offering odds that the horse won’t win – you are the bookie! If they lose, you win the stake of the bettor, if they win, you have to pay out the bettors profit.
Note: you can’t lay horses on any of the normal bookies, only on Exchanges. Betfair is the biggest and best betting Exchange with the most liquidity, so we’d recommend using them.
Both of yesterday’s lays were beaten at Betfair Starting Prices of 3.15 and 3.07 landing a fantastic result for us. Today we bring you another lay selection which we think won’t win its race.
Joseph O’Brien returns to the saddle today having conquered his weight issues for the moment and teams up with his father to form one of Irish racing’s most dominant partnerships for a new season. His first ride back on the flat however is one I want to lay today and that is East India in the 2:45, a rated race for three year-olds at Cork.
East India won his debut by a neck on good to firm ground and looked a promising Galileo colt priced at a hefty £650,000. He was then beaten at 1/5 by Convergence who beat War Envoy on Wednesday night which doesn’t look particularly bad form in hindsight, but perhaps illustrates his limitations. His third and final run of the season can probably be ruled out with his presence in the race very much a supporting act to the very well-liked Ballydoyle stablemate John F. Kennedy. All three runs of East India have been on good to firm ground and so it is perhaps surprising that he turns up on heavy ground today at Cork. This has got to be a negative on a seasonal return from over 200 days off and the likely bigger targets he will have later in the year may suggest he won’t be fully wound up here. Today’s trip of a mile does look a more ideal test for East India, having found seven furlongs too short last season.
Tackling a handicap for the first time, he shoulders top weight off a mark of 94 on official ratings and gives weight all round. This is a worry for me on heavy ground with race fitness likely to be in short supply for the time of year and the 4lbs he gives to Postulation may well swing the balance against him. He finished first on his final outing of last season and the second won on its next start with the third that day winning off 76 since and the fourth winning off 78. The mark of 89 for Postulation as a result looks fairly steep, but I think there is no doubt he is a better horse than those rivals and he is very much expected to step up again this season for the prolific Weld and Smullen yard.
Off Limits is also one of great interest having won a competitive 20-runner race on his last outing. He had already finished second in another large contest and off a mark of 87 he could really be an unknown quality in this field with excellent connections in Wachman and Lee, not to be underestimated in this division.
The betting for this race is wide open with the 5 runners split by a maximum of 3 points in price. East India on pedigree is much the best horse but considering he has to shoulder top weight on bad ground, I believe 5/2-11/4 offers little value for punters. The morning markets show a little bit of support for the Weld runner which could hold the price of East India at around 3/1 on the exchanges but it is possible East India’s price will remain stable between 5/2-3/1. Therefore having never encountered heavy ground and making a return off 203 days, East India provides little value for backers and is a horse I am going to take on and lay as I believe Postulation can really step up on last season for Weld and Smullen.If you want our full set of daily tips, click here for our free horse racing tips!