Channel 4

BetVictor Gold Cup Trends 2016

BetVictor Gold Cup - The Champ Returns 1
Saturday November 12th 2016 - 12:14

The jump season is now upon us, with that means top class jump races! The Cheltenham Open Meeting is just around the corner and that sees the newly sponsored BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase staged on the 12th November. We’ve delved deep into the history of the race and picked out what trends you need to look out for, making picking that winner easier for you!

  • AGE MATTERS – Only 1 horse older than 7yo has won the race in the past 14 years (Little Josh in 2010 at the age of 8) – Look out for the younger legs, 6 of the last 9 winners have been aged 7
  • TRIED AND TESTED – 9 of the last 13 winners have previously won at Cheltenham – As is widely known some horses just don’t take to the track, and trends show that it is useful to have winning course form under your belt before tackling this race.
  • TAKE THE WEIGHT OFF – Only 2 past winners out of the last 19 have won the race with a rating higher than 150. The race tends to favour horses that are ‘well in at the weights’ – Of those last 19 winners, only 3 have carried a weight of more than 11-03
  • HEADING SOUTH – All bar 4 (2 Irish based and 2 northern based), of the last 36 winners have come from southern based trainers – Check to see where the runners are heading from
  • HIGHLY FANCIED – 36 of the last 45 winners have come from the top 4 in the market – It’s not usually a race to throw up big surprises so it pays go with the ones strong in the betting

Taking all this account, you are likely best off with your money on a horse near the top of the betting, that hails from a southern yard. 7yo’s that are in their second season of chasing are ones to finely pick out too as you there have been sparse winners at older than that in the last few decades. Cheltenham form in the book is a huge plus generally when racing round the course, and in this race, the stats heavily back that up. Additionally, many previous winners have had Cheltenham Festival form on the back of them. In regards to ratings, look for a horse in the region of 140-150. The race appears to ask too much for ones rated higher, so that band gives you a happy medium of quality and likely well weighted.