12 runners go to post for the last day of the day at Chelmsford racecourse. It is a 0-50 handicap over 6f so certainly lacks quality but it doesn’t lack that competitive edge and we should be in for a cracking finale to the night. Read on for our expert analysis, runner by runner guide and free tip.
IN SUMMARY: The Ann Stokell trained and ridden Simply Black could be an interesting each way proposition at massive odds, judged on the horses’ 3rd over course and distance off this mark at 100/1 not too long ago. Diamond Indulgence needs to be monitored closely in the market but a chance is taken on LOUIS VEE who is absolutely thrown in on past form and he will not be beat if he brings his A-game to the table.
1 CAMINO – First start for new trainer Andi Brown tonight and interestingly when he sends one runner to a flat meeting he is +£27.50 in profit to level stakes since 2011. This 4 year old filly is winless from nine starts to date but she is with a trainer who has had two winners from his last four runners and the change of scenery can sometimes spark massive improvement. She never figured over course and distance in November 2015 off a mark of 63 but she is down to a career low mark of 50 and is down in class so she has to be respected.
2 DIAMOND INDULGENCE – 4 year old filly who makes her handicap debut on her fourth start for Derek Shaw tonight. She showed plenty of ability when 4th at Southwell and Newcastle on her first two starts and a mark of 50 shouldn’t be beyond her. Very interesting runner with low mileage on the clock and the market will be the best guide.
3 LOUIS VEE – One of the more exposed runners in the field but this 9 year old won over course and distance this time last year off a mark of 59 and he gets to run here off 48 tonight so he is absolutely thrown in if he can recapture his form. He has a lovely draw in Stall 2 and there were signs that he was on the way back to form with a good run in 4th at Wolverhampton last time out. Mitch Godwin also has a 29% strike-rate over the past two weeks so everything looks set for a huge run.
4 WHALEWEIGH STATION – Terrible form figures and hasn’t won since September 2014 at Lingfield so clearly isn’t the most talented of horses but he can’t be discounted in a Class 7 race of this nature with George Baker booked to ride. This horse has been running over much further in recent starts so he should appreciate the drop back down in trip and he’s not out of it off a mark of 48 but looks hard to fancy for win purposes.
5 MISS UPPITY – 4 year old filly who has showed very little from her six starts to date and looks very hard to fancy on all known form. The draw in Stall 11 also isn’t ideal and for all she is back down in trip and is tumbling down the weights, the verdict is to oppose. Tongue tie goes on for the first time which may spark come improvement.
6 GETTIN’ LUCKY – In a weak race like this with poor form on offer, sometimes it is the jockey that ends up being the telling factor and there’s no better man on the All-Weather than Adam Kirby. He rides this horse who seemed to hate the sand at Southwell last time out but his prior 2nd at Newcastle off 45 looks standout form in the context of this race. He is only 1lb higher tonight so commands plenty of respect.
7 SAXONY – 6 year old mare who ran a career best at Southwell last month, finishing 4th of the eight runners at 100/1, trading as low as 11 in-running. If she can build on that performance the 33/1 available could be a bit of each way value but she will have to improve tonnes to land this. Lucy Barry takes off a valuable 5 pounds.
8 UPPER LAMBOURN – 9 year old Exceed And Excel gelding who has done all his winning at Southwell on the fibresand and his last success came back in 2013. He was a solid 4th here at Chelmsford off a mark of 46 in May 2015 over 5f and is not out of this off a 1lb lower mark if he can find his best form.
9 PLEADINGS – Good draw in Stall 5 but he has shown no promise from his handful of starts to date. The good thing is time is on his side, he is only a four year old and Charlie Wallis is a very shrewd operator so don’t be surprised if a market move is forthcoming in such a weak contest. Market guide is the best advice.
10 SIMPLY BLACK – Finished 3rd over this course and distance off a mark of 45 back in September and went off at a huge SP of 100/1 on that occasion. No luck in five starts since but runs off the same mark here and the blinkers and eye-shield combination go on for the very first time. 33/1 could be a reasonable each way price.
11 ODDSOCKS – Poor draw in Stall 12 to overcome but Tony Carroll is a great man for a gamble and if money comes for the horse it could be very significant. William Carson is also booked for the ride, a jockey that has ridden many a Carroll gamble to victory. 5 year old mare has poor form in the book but that matters very little in a Class 7 handicap.
12 BARNSDALE – Very good draw in Stall 3 so should be able to muster up a good early position by the rail but the odds of 33/1 sum up this horses’ chances. However, she was only beat just over 3 lengths off this mark over 5f here at Chelmsford last March, staying on in the closing stages and she runs off the same mark today. She is a poor horse, of that there is no question, but it would be folly to discount her running off this basement mark.