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7.45pm Chelmsford tips for Friday’s race. Read on for our free betting tips, predictions and analysis.
IN SUMMARY: Some interesting sorts stepping back up in trip in many cases but one look at the weights shows that BERLUSCA (Each Way) is potentially thrown in if jockey Josephine Gordon can persuade him to give anything like his best over a trip and track that should suit him perfectly.
1 RAYAA – Decent enough and regularly runs a big race but hasn’t won since back in 2015 and is yet to win in the all-weather after four attempts, three for John Butler and one since moving to Michael Appleby in late September. A well-beaten fourth over this trip at Leicester last time out and looks up against it off the same rating tonight.
2 LIVELLA FELLA – Likely to prove a lot better suited to this return to ten furlongs than the mile he faltered over at Southwell last time out and handicapped to go well off the same mark of 69 as his last win at Doncaster though an all-weather record of eight starts of a single second spot has to count against his chances today.
3 JACK OF DIAMONDS – In good form recently for trainer Roger Teal; with a win at Wolverhampton in September and a length second to Top Offer at the same track last time out. Yet to win beyond a mile and half a furlong the extra trip looks against him here with elven losses at this distance and he will need a career best to be successful tonight for a stable struggling for winners.
4 HARD TOFFEE – Has his first start for trainer Louise Allan and needs to step up a little on his most recent five and a quarter length fifth to Tomahawk Lad when trainer by Conrad Allen. Two wins on the turf at Lingfield and Goodwood but he is yet to get off the mark after four starts on the all-weather and although he has a chance of a place he arrives with a bit to prove on this surface.
5 RIGHT ABOUT NOW – Another changing yards in the hope of recovering his better efforts and has his first run for Chris Dwyer after six unsuccessful efforts for Ismail Mohammed with a five-length second at Kempton the best of them. That was over seven furlongs and this will be his first try at this trip and on breeding it may even bring improvement, but after a nineteen length eleventh last time out he is difficult to make a case for.
6 MILLIE’S KISS – Third of twelve at Wolverhampton over the mile last time out for Philip McBride’s filly, staying on under David Probert to be beaten two lengths at the line and evidence that she is better over this sort of trip. One win from seventeen starts fails to impress but she has been dropped a pound for that effort and with Rossa Ryan back on board and claiming seven pounds she could yet get involved in the finish.
7 BERLUSCA – Uncharacteristically slowly away last time out at Wolverhampton and she has moved about from David O’Meara to Lawrence Mullaney, back to O’Meara, and is now with David Loughnane but she is still tumbling down the weights and is undoubtedly very well handicapped on any of her better form. Only beaten three and a half lengths at Wolverhampton she may have been held up a little bit too long that day but if she is ridden never to the pace here, she has a decent looking chance off two pounds lower tonight.
8 BOLLIHOPE – Heading back to a winning mark for trainer Richard Guest after an acceptable fourth to The Eagle’s Nest at Newcastle last month which has seen him dropped to a rating of 64. He has won off 63 though that was in October 2016 and he may need to drop just a little further before he can be seen as competitive again.
9 THE SALMON MAN – Twenty runs without a win now, three over hurdles and seventeen on the flat and with just the seven places the son of Showcasing has a lot to find. He was only beaten a short head at Lingfield over this trip at odds of 1/2 in December 2016 so clearly does have some ability but rarely sees fit to reproduce that on the track these days and is not one to trust with a bet today.
10 ACCURATE – Now a four-year-old, he won two races at Chantilly when trained by Andre Fabre but has failed to add to those in his next eight starts, seven of them since moving to Ian Williams in early June. An eighth of ten over course and distance last time has seen him dropped another four pounds but he looks out of sorts and needs to bounce back to his best form to take a hand in the finish.
11 LUXFORD – Three wins this year, the latest over this course and distance in a Class Six last month but John Best’s filly was put up five pounds and found that too much when a two and three-quarter length fourth at Lingfield, though to be fair she did meet trouble in running. Same rating today but a nice low weight to run off and may well be capable of challenging the major players at the death.