32Red Conditions Stakes (Class 2)
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Just the five head to post today for the feature race at Kempton, a Class 2 Conditions Stakes worth £11,828 to the winner. Read on for our expert’s thoughts and betting tips.
IN SUMMARY: Pretend will likely be all the rage given he has been one of the top performers over sprint trips in the last couple of years but he has been off for six months and despite being the class act in the field, it’s possible that the run could be needed today with eyes on bigger prizes. That could leave him vulnerable to SPRING LOADED who ran a career best on Boxing Day and given his form last Winter when a good winner of four straight races in this grade, he offers excellent value against the favourite with race fitness on his side. He can use his turn of foot to good effect in this and could be tough to catch.
1 Gentlemen – Won over C&D in March in a Class 4 when rated 83 and refused to race at Chelmsford next time out. Not the first time he’s done that and despite winning his next two at Chelmsford, he’s been largely in and out of form since. Did his best work at the finish four starts ago over C&D upped to this grade but beaten by Spring Loaded at the same level two starts ago at Wolverhampton and well below his mark of 96 last time out at Newcastle when last of 8. Easily taken on in this company.
2 Pretend – Saves his best for the All Weather landing the All Weather Sprint Championship at Lingfield two Winter’s ago. Runner up in a Group 3 in June after almost a year off before being beaten in two Listed races from marks of 112 and then 106. Been off for six months, and has tended to need the run after lengthy breaks but looks the class act of the field and has the assistance of Adam Kirby in the saddle – 26% strike rate in the last fortnight and should go close if ready to go.
3 Related – Decent handicapper on turf but has won twice at this course including over 6f in 2015. Beaten twice over Course and Distance in his last four runs and well beaten when last of 11 at Newcastle twelve days ago at a lower level. Likes to lead but looks vulnerable at the finish in this grade and can be taken on wearing a visor today.
4 Spring Loaded – Four time Course and Distance winner and showed progressive form last Winter when winning four in a row in this trip and grade. Ran a career best at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day in a slightly better race. Likes to be held up and has a good turn of foot which will be dangerous to the likely favourite Pretend who is coming back from a break. Yard are 14% this year with their runners showing a healthy profit of £8.13 to a level stake and no reason to think he cannot make his presence felt kept to this level. Big chance of upsetting the favourite.
5 Golden Amber – Has done all of his winning at this trip and hasn’t been beaten far in his last three races at this level at 7f. This drop in trip should suit him as he likes to front run but looks hard held by the front two in the market and will vulnerable to anything coming off the pace. Hard to fancy.